最近看到http://www.space.com/上面一篇关于神舟七号发射的报道，对于其中一个来自于美国人留言印象非常深刻：(see http://www.space.com/missionlaunches/080924-zhenzhou7-launch-preview.html)
subtronic wrote: teleskeez: you exhibit utmost ignorance and unnecessary arrogance. The "WEST" has been polluting the planet since 150 years. The "WEST" were the colonists for over 300 years, raping the world from Africa to Asia repeatedly. You may want to isolate yourself as being American [btway i am also american and this is not anti american sentiment, rather a true historic fact], who are your ancestors? All them Europeans. From China to India to African nations and South American nations, were all colonies to white people for over 300 years. In that time, they not only destroyed these countries, but destroyed the fabric of the society. They industrialized at the expense of these colonies. so SHUT UP ..about China and India polluting the world and human rights crap, because for the first time in their history these countries are experiencing Industrial revolution. On top of that their population is 4-5 times more than what it was in America and Europe. And lets not bark about Human rights ok. United States, an educated, democratic, industrial nation took over 100 years to recognize African Americans as humans with equal rights. The problem with you idiots, is that your history and "geographical" knowledge is only 10 years old. You point fingers at the world, but forget that you did 50 years ago..and what you did 100 years go to the Planet. China and India have a plethora of issues to tackle, from pollution to human rights, however these are industrial nations at their infancy, it takes a LONG time ..for a new industrial society and government to stabalize and be free.
欧洲人什么时候能够像美国人这么有自知之明啊，这么有反省精神啊！！！在欧洲混了好几年，接触了N多的欧洲朋友，没有一个能够......他们的政治家一天到晚打着所谓人权的幌子在发展中国家和落后国家进行一些令人不耻的勾当，利用他们二三百年的工业财富和技术积累不断对其他国家进行剥削，其实地球污染的根源和罪魁祸首就是英国，该死的英国不应该搞什么工业革命，结果工业化污染整个地球，快要挖光了所有的地球资源，又继续把“工业革命”这种传染病传遍全世界，继续剥削地球自然资源，继续进行毁灭地球，其实中国古代文化中的“天人合一”那种与自然和平相处的那种“陶渊明式的”农业生活才是可取之道啊！如果没有那些欧洲对中国的近代历史侵略，怎么会有如今中国的工业化？？？不过话说回来，人类的确是一个自我毁灭的种族，一旦一个强大，就对其他进行侵略，而工业革命正是体现了这一点，只不过大大加速了自我毁灭的速度而已了......
2008年9月25日星期四
2008年9月13日星期六
中国房地产现状与中国经济拉美化
草庵居士
引言
一到这来，刚一进门，就有朋友认出我来，所以我真是非常荣幸，我真是不
知道什么时候成了名人了。不过有一点，朋友跟我讲，“你到哪里去，都有朋友
管你饭吃。”这回，我真的相信这一点。
非常感谢大家，其实我不是什么专家，我是做生意的，做什么生意呢？用中
文讲就是证券公司，在加州是做这个的。每次都有很多人问我，“草庵阿，你老
说中国经济不好，其实中国经济看上去挺不错的，你看那高楼大厦盖的。”包括
我很多白人朋友跟我说，“我们到上海一看哪，我们纽约建了一百年才建成这模
样，上海才建了二十年，这高楼大厦就快超过纽约了。怎么说经济不好呢？”也
有很多人问我，“你每次出去肯定别有用心，你干吗说中国不好，你是中国人，
你这不是反华、反×吗？”其实我跟他们一直在讲，我干吗要反华反×呢？中国
有句话说，看见别人做错事了，咱说说他，叫他做点好事不对吗？国家吗，挺爱
她的，每次看她做错事了，我就提点建议。不过，你们知道，提建议也是很难的，
稍一不留神，就反华、反×了，挺麻烦的。
不过，你知道，××高层吧，他们说话也经常不小心。他们经常说，你看我
们中国真好，经济增长９% ，都是高楼大厦。但是偶尔呢，他们自己一不留神，
就把消息透露出来了。这次人大会议，３月９号开的会，财政部长金人庆讲了，
我们这个坏帐，以前四大银行的坏帐啊，拨出去１. ４万亿人民币，拨到四大资
产公司去了。现在四大资产公司卖不出去，结果还得叫财政部给解决。我以前就
跟大家讲啊，银行坏帐最终还是要叫老百姓承担。结果这次他是第一次承认了，
没办法，坏帐解决不了。
１) 贪官卷款外逃，银行拒负责任
另外还有件事情，想跟大家报告一下。大家可能都知道哈尔滨跑出去一个高
山，带走十亿人民币。这在国内是很大一个事，今天讲的不是他跑的问题，而是
因为很多人的钱搁在银行里叫他给卷走了。中国银行和中国人民银行协商，这个
钱补不补？大家都知道在美国的情况，我就有这个经历，我是到欧洲，结果我的
银行卡，就是ＢＯＡ( ＢａｎｋｏｆＡｍｅｒｉｃａ，美国银行) 的现金卡给丢
了，我还不知道，隔了两天才知道。就打电话给银行，发现有３０００块美金让
人给刷走了。结果银行告诉我，你别着急，我们马上把钱补给你，我们去调查。
这是美国的信用，其实是我搞丢的，它银行为什么要承担呢？美国就是这样规定
的。中国十亿人民币被卷走之后，中国银行就提出一个理由，说高山属个人诈骗，
跟我们银行没有关系，你们谁存的钱，谁自己承担。结果就引起很大争论，储户，
包括哈尔滨高速公路都说你们中国银行有信用，我才存钱到你那里去，不然，谁
往你那里存啊？中行说，不对，因为他个人更换你的钱了，我们银行没有想偷你
的，是他个人诈骗，所以你要告，告他去。所以很多储户很急，说我们不能跑到
加拿大告他去啊，×国政府都找不到他，我们上哪儿找他去？所以中国银行啊，
就出现这种信用问题。遇到问题呢，他们就推。为什么这么推呢？这个中国银行
哈尔滨分行就说了，现在银行实行承包制。我们发工资只发６０% ，另４０% 年
底才发。他拿了十亿走阿，等于把我们全省银行职工工资的４０% 都拿走了还不
止。黑龙江省中行账面上盈利４０００多万，实际是亏了四个多亿，新上任的行
长还说一年要盈利十个亿，看起来，０５年是盈利不了了，因为提前都给卷走了，
想盈利也盈利不了了。所以，中国银行的信用很成问题了。
２) 贪官被捕，新官总结是因“不团结”
另一个事，哎，我这一上来就报告不好的事。咱说点好的。我再报导一个消
息，我是看天下卫视，在洛杉矶有。说在兰州有一个私人企业家叫张国芳被抓了。
结果他一牵扯之后呢，兰州市委书记王军、市长张玉舜、副市长杨在溪等在内的
７０多名官员一块给抓了。之后，中央政府和甘肃省政府就派一个新书记去。这
个新书记叫陈宝生，就职演说就叫卫星电视给播出来了，刚好叫我给看到了。他
怎么讲呢，他说，“我们兰州市出这么大问题，反映我们干部不团结阿！你们互
相内斗，我们这个地方怎么能出现好干部呢？你们没法得到提拔的。”你看，他
们７０多个官员被抓，他总结问题是因为不团结，内斗把他们给捅出来了。我听
完之后，觉得他们这些官员都很胆大，没有顾忌，“水平也都很高”。在美国这
么讲话，好像布希也得下台。西安晚报３月３号还报导了讲话原文，你们可以看
看，他们怎么不团结。说你们不团结，连市长、书记都给抓了。以后要团结，有
什么事，要大家商量，商量好了之后，才能说出去。中国有很多这样的事情。
ＩＩ中国房地产现状
１) 危险的中国房地产
我到达拉斯来，感觉一个特点，这儿的房子真便宜。很羡慕。我住在朋友家
３０００多尺的房子才卖２０万，在洛杉矶是不可想像的事情。在洛杉矶，一尺
是７００到８００块钱，３０００多尺要卖２００多万，这里简直是天堂啊。我
以后要移民到这来，买这房子。洛杉矶的房子我都不能承受，刚看这里的报纸广
告，一栋四千八百尺的房子，外带一个网球场，一个游泳池，才卖十五万，这简
直是白送啊，在洛杉矶二百万都买不到。可是，上海的房子比洛杉矶还厉害。我
有一个朋友，上海人，是个医生，是做脊椎整形的医生，生意很赚钱。他说，现
在上海的房子卖的很好，一套３房的公寓才卖５０万美金。要投资去买两套。我
当时跟他说，不能买。他说，不行，大家都抢购，不买是傻瓜。他真的回大陆去
买，还要排队买。后来，在上海呆３个月就回来了。之后告诉我，他原本要买两
套，后来退了一套，说不退不行，因为他发现他们骗他。他说，当他去买房子的
时候，人家告诉他没房子，要排队。当他拿着机票给他们看的时候，说他在美国
有生意，马上要回去。结果人家又告诉他有两套房子，要卖给他。他说，不能让
别人把他这上海人看得太傻，他要亲自看看去。结果发现房子都有人买，却没人
住，这很奇怪。当时就买了一套，另一套房子的定金就不要了。两个星期前跟我
说，“我发现他们买房子是假的，我找了个人去查，发现他们员工一个人就贷款
买了十几套房子，买了之后再卖给我们，自己在炒。把我们美国人都当傻瓜了。”
中国房地产的状况就是这样。中国银行在上海的一家分行就贷款了１. ８万
亿人民币，你知道中国大陆人民总共储蓄额只有将近１０万亿。你想一想，光上
海一家银行就贷款了１. ８万亿，中国老百姓怎么有可能去支付这个房价？实际
上，北京、上海的房子已经超过纽约、洛杉矶了。洛杉矶好莱坞才不过８００元
一尺，上海多少？两万块人民币／米阿！那是公寓啊，而不是独立的房子啊！所
以房子市场是很危险的，但是中国经济就是这样的。
２) 地方政府靠卖地维持财政
××拉动经济，以前朱镕基是讲积极财政，发行国债推动经济。中国推动国
有经济肯定要比私有经济效率要低。在这种效率低的时候，产生的效果就是，经
济效益越来越差，社会发展越来越慢。在这种情况下，政府税收越来越少，经济
会停滞。这时候，财政扩大之后，中央负债多，开支减少，地方政府就没钱了。
怎么办呢？广东、福建等地就比较聪明，开始卖地。国家土地在公×制的制
度下，是没有进入流通领域的。土地只有称为商品交易时才有价值，中国土地都
国有，它没有交易，因而没有产生价格，所以在人民币流通体系中，根本不包括
土地价值、矿山价值。在这种情况下，地方政府卖地，等于产生额外收入，弥补
地方财政。
甘肃、陕西省政府说，我们当初每次修公路、招商引资，我们找老百姓捐款、
收税，中央政府说我们乱收费，我们落个不好的名声。你看，上海、广东卖地，
卖一笔是一笔，一笔都是几百万，上千万。结果甘肃、陕西也都开始卖地。卖的
钱是不交中央政府的，只交一点税，大部分是归地方政府。所以中国的房地产不
是中央在支援，而是地方政府必须要卖地，卖地之后的收入维持省、市、县一级
地方政府的运转，那样他们才出政绩。在这种情况下，假若我要当市长，我的哥
们做房地产，当我们俩沟通好之后，将土地卖给他，他赚了钱，大家都有份儿，
地方也有钱了，效益也出来了，市政建设也好了。
３) 政府强迫**、强迫买房，对百姓实施二次盘剥
中国跟美国不一样。在美国**的时候，有别的房子可以去租。在中国，没
有可租的房子去住，特别大批房子**之后，农村和城市都没有出租房子为生的
人。在这种情况下，进一步逼迫**户再次买房子。原来房子土地的价值呢，等
于没有价值，只给很少的钱补偿。强迫你到郊区去买房的时候，等于你遭受了二
次剥削，那钱滚动一次，还是流到政府手中，因为房地产资源主要还是掌控在政
府手中。这种情况下，经济有一个小的微循环，回圈中只有一方在盈利，就是政
府。地方政府维持开支，它必须这么做。所以大家看到中国房地产一直在涨，包
括上海市政府官员前些日子还在讲，说上海房价不能跌，跌了要出问题。
４) 汽车贷款坏帐严重的内幕
中国刚刚开始做汽车贷款，这也是金人庆讲的。现在已经查明汽车贷款有多
少坏帐呢？１０００亿人民币。中国买汽车的人很少，现在已有１０００亿人民
币坏帐，收不回来了。他们怎么做呢？他们把汽车买来之后，到别的省卖掉，把
钱装兜里就走了。变相贷款，查都没地方去查，中国没这种制度，又没有社会安
全号，到哪里去，花点钱就可以换个身份证，谁也找不着他，而且当地警察也不
管，乡里乡亲的，给我两万块钱，就看不见他了。就这样的，很奇怪很奇怪的现
象。中国房地产整个市场也是这么骗。
ＩＩＩ大陆经济拉美化的趋势
１) 大陆通货膨胀刚刚开始
另外一个，大陆很可能会通货膨胀。其实前两天大陆公布了一个资料，说整
个基础原材料上涨到了７１% 。可是，中国大陆刚刚公布说我们通货膨胀３. ９
% ，我就搞不明白，７１% 的基础原材料上涨，包括矿砂、石油、铁矿石都涨，
你说做这个杯子的壳得用铝吧，它的价格不可能只涨４% ，原料涨７１% ，价格
只涨４% ，你说，不大可能的事情。中国大陆说话，你不能太相信。就跟前些时
候大陆统计局局长说的，大骗子说小骗子，大流氓说小流氓。你们地方政府不能
说统计资料差４０% ，你们统计的不准确，我们中央统计的准确。真的差４０% ？
那４０% 相当于×国政府一年的财政收入啊。透露个消息，这消息也是他讲的，
地方政府的ＧＤＰ与中央政府统计的ＧＤＰ差４０% 。几乎相当于中国大陆政府
一年的财政收入，可是大陆政府公布的财政收入没有这么多，只有３０００多亿。
可是相差的４０% ，差４６００亿。从这点可以看到，中国大陆政府的财政收入，
可能花的比它公布的要多。他说几乎相当于大陆一年的财政收入。草庵居士经常
揭露他们的资料漏洞，不过，这是他们自己讲的。所以你就知道，中国的财政收
入远远高于它公布的资料。这是财政部长自己讲的话。
２) 拉美经济的特点之一：固定汇率
其实讲来讲去，还是回到原来的话题，中国的经济怎么样？拉美经济最好的
国家是阿根廷，巴西。阿根廷的国土面积在拉美国家中算是比较大的，物资比较
好。这个国家有个特点，就是９９年亚洲金融风暴，包括巴西金融破产，对阿根
廷都没有影响。阿根廷都挺过来了，就跟中国一样。亚洲金融风暴，韩国也倒了，
印尼、马来西亚也倒了，中国挺过来了，很相近的例子。拉美国家８０年代以前
经济都不好，后来，阿根廷上台一个新的总统，叫梅内姆，很懂经济。他执行几
个政策：固定汇率，跟中国大陆一样，一刀切，阿根廷的货币叫比索，外国资产
进来后统统换成比索，不准美元流通。这样一来，外汇储量增加很快。利率统一，
由政府控制。采取的政策跟邓××一样，改革、开放，引进外资，发展外资经济。
经济增长很快，最高达到９. ７% ，最低达到７% ，中国达到９. ３% 。阿根廷
的经济真的增长的很快，外汇储备增长很快，货币稳定。货币值很稳定的时候，
外商觉得投资很好，大量投资。经济增长很好。１９９９年１０月，阿根廷总统
梅内姆( ＣａｒｌｏｓＭｅｎｅｍ) 受邀在国际货币基金组织/ 世界银行年会上
发表演讲，另一位演讲者是美国总统克林顿。这是对梅内姆本人政绩的奖赏，更
是阿根廷荣耀的象征。那时候，巴西也倒了，智利也倒了，墨西哥也倒了，只有
阿根廷是ＮＯ. １。跟中国的情况类似。
然而，仅仅两年过后，阿根廷就陷入了严重的经济、社会、政治危机之中，
波及面之广，程度之深超出了绝大多数人的预料。２００１年１２月间，银行存
款被冻结，ＩＭＦ宣布停止救援，经济部长卡瓦略( ＤｏｍｉｎｇｏＣａｖａｌ
ｌｏ) 和总统德拉鲁阿( ＤｅｌａＲｕａ) 相继辞职，阿政府宣布停止支付外债。
２００２年１月６日，国会通过《公共紧急状态和汇率体制改革法》，授予
新总统杜哈德( ＥｄｕａｒｄｏＤｕｈａｌｄｅ) 几乎不受限制的经济权力以应
对危机，同时放弃了以１：１的平价钉住美元的货币局体制。随后，银行存款和
政府债务按规定汇率被强制比索化。２月１１日，外汇市场重新开放，比索开始
大幅贬值，政府由此从银行和民间掠夺了大量财富。由于政府对私有产权的大规
模侵害，私人投资和生产的动力丧失殆尽，精英人才持续外流。而且，假如当局
不能迅速重建货币信誉、严格财政约束，曾经使阿根廷人深受其苦达数十年之久
的严重通货膨胀会很快来临。仅仅几年时间，阿根廷从荣耀走入了低谷，从宠儿
变成了弃儿。
３) 拉美经济的特点之二：引进外资
阿根庭曾经是×国政府学习的榜样，××曾经排除庞大的访问团去学习他们
的经验。从两国对比上看，阿根廷国土面积近２７８万平方公里，居世界第８位。
自然资源相当丰富。２０００年ＧＤＰ为２８５０亿美元，出口总额仅占ＧＤＰ
总量的１０. ８% ，进口总额占ＧＤＰ的１１. ４% 。而同时期中国的出口、进
口总额占ＧＤＰ的比重分别为２５. ９% 和２３. ２% 。从国土资源和经济规模
来看，阿根廷实际上是一个大国，至少是一个潜在的大国。经济这么好的一个国
家，到了２００２年出问题了。它采取的第一个政策就是引进外资，以外资为主
然后是固定汇率。
４) 拉美经济的特点之三：积极财政
第三个政策是积极财政政策。跟××一步一步走的很类似。为什么采取积极
财政呢？经济增长到一定程度，拉动不起来的时候，它要扩大投资，它觉得外汇
储备多，就大量投资。但在法律不健全的情况下，出现问题了。只要跟阿根廷官
员沾亲带故，就都有饭吃，能吃点肉，最起码能喝点肥油汤。这个时候，阿根廷
腐败出现。积极财政，就是政府投资，刚才讲了，政府投资大的时候，必然压制
私有经济，政府有权力，有势力，私人经济怎么跟它竞争？
另一方面，政府投资效率低，这是几十年的历史和××主义史都证明了的事
情。结果经济往下走，财政税收上不来，政府就不能维持了。它发行的国债多，
要还债了，要赋税了，怎么办？阿根廷采取政策，这个政策叫朱镕基给学去了，
什么政策呢？就是增加金融交易税，利息要交税，股票也要交税等等。考察团去
阿根廷别的没学会，把这个给学会了。结果回来，百姓银行存款利息也交税，股
票也交税。这样一来，好像是税收增加了，银行存的钱去投资，但是，国有经济
大量强制在那里的时候，私有经济就缺乏空间了，这种空间叫国有经济给压着。
大家赚不到钱，私人也不会投资，大家都在看着。在这种情况下，政府出钱抬高
股市。阿根廷政府就用各种政策刺激、抬高股市。就跟前两年，大陆股票高达２
４００点，涨的很高，产生大量交易后，政府赚交易税，维持政府。
要想维护货币体制的信誉和金融系统的稳定，政府必须严格财政约束。在政
府机会主义( ｓｔａｔｅｏｐｐｏｒｔｕｎｉｓｍ) 和干预主义严重的国家，财
政赤字始终是对货币稳定的最大威胁，因为征收通货膨胀税以弥补财政赤字是政
府的惯常做法。阿根廷的历史尤其表明了这一点。不难理解，如果政府开支没有
节制，财政赤字持续增长，人们就很难相信政府坚决维护货币局体制的诚意。如
果经常专案盈余很少或没有盈余，那么只有通过资本专案的盈余来提供储备。为
此，当然要保证货币稳定和金融系统的稳健以防止资本外流，更关键的是要吸引
不断增加的外资流入。这要求政府在外债总量与ＧＤＰ规模、政府财政收入之间
保持适当比例，以保证自己的偿债能力，毕竟偿债能力是该政府能从国际市场上
持续融资的前提条件。
显然，明智的政府应该一方面通过推进自×化改革、改善支撑经济发展的制
度架构来激发国内经济的活力，从总供给方面增强经济的效率和实力，从而提高
财政收入；另一方面尽量削减不必要的政府支出，以避免财政赤字的发生和增长。
财政赤字的增长是危险的。尤其要认识到，用扩张财政支出来刺激总需求不可能
实现长期稳定的经济增长。
但事实上，阿根庭政府确实是个不负责任的政府，官僚和极×成为这个政权
的主要特征，“维护稳定”成为这个政权的最重要任务，这点和今日的××有着
极为相似的地方。就是这样一个不负责任的政府实施的不负责任的财政政策，一
方面( 主要是高税收) 摧毁了经济增长的基础，另一方面导致了财政赤字和债务
规模的激增，最终使得政府无力支付外债，破坏了货币局体制和金融系统的稳定。
前ＩＭＦ权威经济学家穆萨( ＭｉｃｈａｅｌＭｕｓｓａ) 有这样一段经典
评论：“………( 这场) 灾难的根本原因在于，阿根廷政府长期以来实行的不负
责任的财政政策。对阿根廷来说，这是一个古老的令人沮丧的故事。为了满足各
种各样的政治需要和压力，阿根廷( 各级) 政府形成了花销远远超过税入的持久
的倾向。只要能借到钱来支撑其过度开支，不管国内或国外，它在哪里还有信用，
它就从哪里借款。当进一步借钱不再可行或可能时，就求助于通货膨胀和( 或)
公开中止偿还债务以及剥夺债权人。这就是阿方辛总统执政时期发生的事情，且
在１９９０年的超级通货膨胀中登峰造极。细节上稍有差异但实质上完全相同，
这也是此前５０年中( 导致了早期的几次金融危机) 不断发生的故事。可以说，
在财政事物的管理中，阿根廷政府就像一个慢性酒精中毒者，一旦开始”吸收
“赤字支出的政治压力，他就再也难以自制，直到造成相当于醉倒的经济后果。
( 不幸的是) 在过去的１０年间，这个故事又一次发生，并且在规模上超过了过
去的最高”成就“………”
５) 拉美经济的特点之四：通货膨胀
到最后，经济还是不行。就跟现在中国一样，股市也跌了，经济内需还是不
足，怎么办呢？政府又出一个招，就是通货膨胀。通货膨胀最简单，政府多印钞
票，一印钞票，债就没了，钞票也贬值了。本来你银行存款有１００万，一年后，
贬了２０% ，一下剩８０万，再过一年，又贬２０% ，剩下６０万不到。贬了几
年，政府的负债是没了，你上辈子辛辛苦苦赚的退休的钱只剩３０万。阿根廷就
这样。它通货膨胀到什么程度？
从１９６７年开始至１９９０年，阿根廷历任政府先后实施了８个经济稳定
计划，试图加强财政和货币约束，但均告失败。这段历史清楚表明了该国政府的
机会主义和掠夺性动机是何等强烈，由一个不负责任的政府操纵着货币政策和财
政政策是何等的危险。通过扩大货币发行量，政府不必经过国会( 民众) 的正式
认可，就可以获取大笔收益以弥补财政赤字；经由恶性通货膨胀，政府可以轻松
地把国内债务一笔勾销。
从１９８５年到１９９０年间，铸币税收益占了阿政府总财政收入的大约５
４% ，其中在１９８７年这项指标竟然高达８６% 。在１９８７年这项指标竟然
高达８６% 。正是在这样的危机情形下，为了稳定货币、恢复经济增长，由梅内
姆总统领导的政府于１９９１年４月１日实施“可兑换计划( Ｃｏｎｖｅｒｔｉ
ｂｉｌｉｔｙＰｌａｎ) ”，采用货币局体制，维持比索与美元之间１：１的汇
率平价，承诺比索持有者可以按照这一平价不受限制地兑换美元。这一举措的主
要目的在于，保证货币供给过程不受本国政治的操纵，杜绝政府制造通货膨胀的
可能性，借用美元的清偿能力来支撑本币的购买力和民众的信任，实质上是借用
美元或者说美联储的信誉。
从１９９１年４月到１９９８年１２月巴西货币贬值之前，“可转换体制”
在稳定货币和促进经济增长方面发挥了关键作用。在该方案实施后不到三年，通
货膨胀率就从４位数降到了１位数，１９９３年为７. ４% ，１９９４年降为３
. ９% 。货币稳定改善了投资环境，外资大量流入，与此同时阿根廷政府逐步解
除对贸易、投资和资本流动的管制，经济开始强势增长。从１９９０年到１９９
３年，实际ＧＤＰ累积增长了２８% 。最初的复苏过程结束以后，从１９９３年
中到１９９８中，ＧＤＰ年均增长率仍然高达４. ４% ，何况由于受到墨西哥货
币危机的冲击，１９９５年实际ＧＤＰ比１９９４年的水平下降了２. ８% ！同
时期，通胀率保持在更低的水平，其中１９９６年通胀率为０，１９９８年ＣＰ
Ｉ仅比上年增加了０. ９% 。无疑，“可转换体制”功不可没。
１９９４年墨西哥危机发生后，该体制的信誉面临着真正的考验。一方面，
民众和投资者的信心受到影响，美元存款从银行系统大量流出，资本外逃严重，
基础货币相应萎缩。另一方面，“可转换体制”的灵活性又比较成功地缓解了部
分压力，因为阿根廷央行保有在一定程度上调控货币供应量和应付流动性危机的
手段，从而免除了货币贬值的必要性，显然有利于支撑人们的信心。
经历了短暂的急剧衰退之后，１９９５年底阿根廷又恢复了快速经济增长，
一直持续到１９９８年末。正是这些业绩成就了阿根廷的辉煌和荣耀。同一时期，
阿根廷出口部门的业绩更为出色。
在１９９１~ １９９３年间，实际出口总值年均增长１. ８% ，对ＧＤＰ的
迅速增长贡献不大。然而在１９９４~ １９９７年间，出口总值年均增长率高达
１４. ４% ，高于其他７个主要拉美国家总体上１１. １% 的业绩，明显拉动了
整个国内经济的成长。可见，在１９９８年１２月巴西货币贬值之前，根本不存
在( 由于钉住美元导致) 比索高估从而影响出口竞争力的问题。
“可兑换体制”并非僵硬的纯粹的货币局体制，保留了一些中央银行的特征。
这种灵活性在遭受非对称的外部冲击时发挥了缓冲压力的正面作用，尽管也会削
弱人们对货币局体制的信任度。但是，由于中央银行和商业银行系统的储备资产
中含有大量本国政府债券( 主要是美元债务) ，一个严重的危险是，一旦政府无
力支付债务，金融危机必然发生，“可兑换体制”必将岌岌可危。
实际上，“可兑换体制”后来面对的压力并不是自身缺陷造成的，而主要来
源于政府不负责任的财政政策和停滞不前的自×化改革( 如劳动力市场的严格管
制) 。阿根廷经济、社会和政治危机的根本原因正在于此。如果“可兑换体制”
在客观上要对危机负一定责任的话，那就是，在一个不负责任的政府手中，它成
了方便官僚们从国际市场上低成本借钱以满足其挥霍欲望的工具。但是，这不是
“可兑换体制”自身的错，因为它同样能迫使或鼓励一个负责任的政府进一步加
强财政约束，实施更全面的市场化改革，努力改善支撑经济发展的制度基础
现在中国大陆政府也是这样。两年前，也是在德州开会时，我跟他们说，人
民币没有升值的机会，那么多坏帐怎么升值？他们也知道不能升值。我跟他们说，
你一年贬２０% ，老百姓吃点苦，但有一个条件，你看俄国改革时，这么大的变
化，它的一个社保体系和医疗保险不变，老百姓再穷，但饿不死，只是他们享受
权没了。朱镕基一上台，把社保体系砍没了，他省多少钱？一年省掉两万亿。把
医疗保险也给砍了，一下省四万亿。总共城市那点钱，一年砍掉六万亿开销，他
觉得经济发展了。可是老百姓退休时没有钱花，看病没有钱看，社会动乱就出来
了，这是很大问题。阿根廷通货膨胀时，还有社保体系，通货膨胀都受不了，而
中国现在，有通货膨胀但没有社保体系。
６) 政府私有化补充财政收入，取消社保与医疗保险，雪上加霜
坏帐那么多，通货膨胀是必然要走的路。但是我建议他们要把社保解决了。
所以股票市场的国有股闹的那么凶，我说你是７０００万股民重要还是１３亿老
百姓重要？还不如把那十几万亿的人民币钱都做社保基金算了。你每年拿点钱给
老百姓发退休金，救济老百姓，给他们看病有个着落。通货膨胀时，老百姓也就
是吃饭比较困难，以前吃一斤肉，现在吃一两，至少能维持，把困难阶段度过去。
否则，×国政府的坏帐终有一天都要暴露出来的，都要老百姓去承担，有钱人跑
美国，加拿大去，没钱人怎么办呢？你把老百姓钱都坑完，难道你还要再坑第二
次吗？这种情况下，×国政府本来就得要做一个准备工作，就是保障老百姓最低
的一个生活。
但×国政府不这么做，它学阿根廷，学它通货膨胀。前两天刚刚公布，今年
一到三月份大陆通货膨胀率３. ９% ，我真的不相信。去年１２月份他们公布原
材料涨价７１% ，我想７１% 怎么变成３. ９% ？真的太悬殊了。他们讲就是３
. ９% ，你信也得信，这是我们统计的。就跟我上次在明尼苏达讲，山东省讲，
我们的ＧＤＰ是保留资料，没敢多讲。反正他们总是有理由，脸皮很厚，说他们
说谎，他们不承认，说是资料出偏差了。××什么都统一，就是资料，他们不统
一。真是这样的。
再看看阿根庭是如何借私有化来增加政府收入的，１９９１年４月梅内姆总
统争取到了议会的认可，大胆启动了货币局体制。尽管开始ＩＭＦ对此是有疑虑
的，但是还是给予了支援。不幸的是，后来梅内姆难以抗拒各种政治压力，该体
制逐渐成为政府低成本借款的工具。
在ＩＭＦ的隐含担保下，由于比索借用了美元的信誉，国际资本开始大量涌
入，主要是购买阿根廷政府的美元债券。经由中央银行换成比索之后，政府是如
何开销这笔财富的呢？这部分外资几乎没有流向公司融资市场，也没有多少形成
了政府的服务性支出( 如司法、公共安全、教育，基础设施等) 。尽管支援了不
少公共工程项目，但大部分资金还是变成了公共部门雇员的薪水和社会保障支出。
作者：lingbn 回复日期：2005-10-9 09:37:54
相比私人部门，公共部门的就业人数( 传统上就很高) 增加更快，工资率更
高，毋庸质疑生产率也更低。这简直是阿根廷人的盛宴，只要他在公共部门就业
或通过其他途径与这个特权系统保持着亲近的联系。外资一旦被分配到了政府的
受益人手中，大部分被用来购买上好的进口商品，去国外旅游以及投资于国外的
硬通货资产。就这样，由政府借进来的外国资本大部分又经由私人渠道流了出去。
但新一轮外资又流进来，加上政府得自私有化改革的收入作为补充，以维持
国内货币供求和国际收支的平衡。然而，随着这一过程的持续和重复，外债持续
增长，政府开支的增长率也远高于经济增长率。梅内姆总统从９０年代初开始采
取了一些有益的改革措施，包括自×化改革和结构调整，最重要的是１９９１年
４月实施的“可兑换计划”。
在１９９０~ １９９３年期间，经济迅速恢复增长。在此期间，梅内姆还试
图削减财政赤字，消除通货膨胀的隐患。意识到削减政府支出会立即招致选民的
反对，他选择了提高增值税率( 从１６% 分两次提高到２１%)。他还顶住了工会
组织的强烈反对，坚持出售一批国有企业和公用事业。强劲的经济增长，私有化
收益和１９９３年的布拉迪债务重组都有助于改善财政状况，总的公共债务对Ｇ
ＤＰ的比率在１９９３年降到了２９. ２% 。
在这点上和以前的江朱政府积极财政政策及目前的××政府施行的宏观调控
政策非常相象。大家只要一对比，马上就看出了××财政政策走的路线和以前的
阿根庭政府是一模一样。没办法啊，不是××不想走新路，而是社会环境和局势
逼着他必须要走老路。
阿根庭从１９９３年中期开始，经济进入良好的正常增长阶段。然而随着经
济状况的显著改善，梅内姆开始难以抗拒贝隆主义者长期形成的要求政府增加福
利支出的政治压力。１９９４年，财政预算开始大幅度增加。１９９５年，经由
政治策略和许多让步，梅内姆成功地再次当选。为了能再次连任( 宪法是不允许
的) ，在第二任期里他尽量避免触犯他人以争取政治支援。结果，财政开支和政
府债务规模变得难以控制。你们看看，这和当年的江××和朱榕基多相似，利益
交换嘛。
尽管１９９７~ １９９８年的亚洲金融危机没有对阿根廷经济产生多少负面
影响，但毕竟投下了阴影。在ＩＭＦ的督促下，梅内姆也试图削减政府支出，并
采取措施提高劳动力市场的灵活性，但是工会以大规模罢工作为答复，结果作罢。
悲剧的种子就是在繁荣时期种下的。从１９９３年到１９９８年，经济保持着年
均４. ４% 的增长，而且还得益于私有化的收益，但是阿根廷公共债务对ＧＤＰ
的比率从１９９３年的２９. ２% 增加到了１９９８年的４１. ４% ，同期财政
赤字总额对ＧＤＰ的比率增加了１２. ６%(不含１９９３年) ！而阿根廷政府从
未能征收到超过ＧＤＰ２０% 的税收。显然，“荣耀”的背后潜藏着深刻的危机。
在经济繁荣的时期尚且如此，怎么能指望该政府处于经济衰退的时候能有所收敛
呢？
１９９８年１２月以后，阿根廷经济陷入衰退，税收相应减少，同时要求政
府增加补偿性福利支出的压力却不断增长，公共财政状况雪上加霜。梅内姆要求
议会修改宪法为他再次连任总统提供可能性，结果没有成功。在１９９９年１２
月德拉鲁阿继任总统，面对着不断增长的政府债务，他选择了错误的对策——大
规模增税。２０００年１月，政府对于年收入３万比索以上者增加了个人所得税，
同时增加了财产税、饮料( 酒) 税和汽车税费，还对烟草征收特别税。２００１
年４月生效的所谓《竞争力法》( ＣｏｍｐｅｔｉｔｉｖｅｎｅｓｓＬａｗ) 设
立了金融资产交易税。税率最初定为０. ２５% ，后来提高到０. ４% 。２００
１年８月，政府又颁布法令把金融交易税提高到了法律许可的最高限——０. ６
% 。此时，阿根廷的增值税率为２１% ，社会保障和医疗保险税为３１. ９% ，
最高收入所得税为３５% 。你们再看今天的××政府，不也是遇到了这个问题，
怎么办，增税呀。在几年前，朱榕基就已经开始增税了，连银行利息税都开征了。
相比之下，美国的销售税一般在０~ ９% 之间，社会保障和医疗保险税仅为
１５. ３% ，而对银行帐户交易根本不征税。沉重的税务负担严重打击了本来已
经有复苏迹象的国内经济，经济衰退加剧，同时刺激了逃税行为。
其中，金融交易税尤其有害，因为它鼓励了银行储户提取现款，用现金进行
交易以逃避税收。可想而知，政府税入只会缩减。显然，政府已经无力支付债务。
到２００１年第三季度，公共债务达到１４１０亿美元，相当于１９９４年水平
的２倍，但２００１年的ＧＤＰ只比１９９４年增加了５%(人均ＧＤＰ实际上下
降了) 。中国在几年前也是采取了这种策略，这就是施行银行利息税。结果，大
家存款收入还要交金融交易税，这和当年的拉美非常相象。在另一方面看，中国
的公共债务那里是当年阿根庭能比的，人家才一千四百亿美元，可是我们中国，
早就超过了一万亿美元。中国可是比当年的阿根庭“荣耀”多了。是世界历史上
罕见的“盛世”啊。
从全面上看，××目前的状态和阿根庭多么的相象。当年阿根庭出现的问题，
今天的××全都同样存在，而且更严重。××目前是加税，固定汇率，增加国债，
从去年底开始又进行通货膨胀。特别是××的税收，每年都是以百分之二十以上
的比例增加，远高于ＧＤＰ的增长幅度。
政府债务危机威胁着“可兑换体制”和整个金融体系的稳定，因为中央银行
的储备中有大量的政府( 美元) 债券，商业银行的资产中也有不少政府债券和贷
款。尽管债务问题在不断恶化，然而在２００１年３月卡瓦略再次被任命为经济
部长以前，比索的信誉和银行系统仍然相对良好。先前，卡瓦略曾经表示，欧元
应该在外汇储备中与美元平分秋色以解决储备不足问题，而最终比索应该走向浮
动。显然，货币局体制的信誉受到威胁，卡瓦略一上任，银行间比索利率几乎立
刻激增，银行存款的流失开始升级。６月份政府采取了更致命的错误决策，货币
局体制已经名存实亡。６月１９日，卡瓦略宣布实行多轨汇率制，即对于出口部
门比索币值低估，对于进口部门币值高估，所有其他交易按照比索对美元１：１
的平价。此前，政府对于自×兑换基本上没有实施管制，汇率是单一汇率。对于
“可兑换体制”更致命的打击发生在６月２５日，国会通过法案批准了经济部长
卡瓦略提出的计划，打算把比索单一钉住美元的汇率安排转变为钉住由美元和欧
元各占１/ ２所组成的一篮子货币。阿根廷民众和国外投资者的不信任发展为恐
慌，比索利息急升，美元储备加速外流。你们知道未来××会怎么做吗？草庵居
士的狂话先在今天就放这里，××还会和阿根庭走一样的路，采取多国货币一揽
子计划。放弃紧盯美元计划，实行美元，欧元，日元挂钩的一篮子货币。最后的
结果，阿根庭就是例子。
再看今日的××政府，同样是引以为荣地高喊着：“外贸增长和外资投资增
长”是维护中国发展的两大利器。同样也是广发债券，利用各种手段提高公务员
收入，拉拢利益集团。同时，今天的××政府同样也是不去削减政府财政开支，
而是企图扩大税源和提高税率来增加财政收入，与此同时，由于政府无法负担庞
大的财政开支，任由地方政府变卖土地资源来达到维持政府开支及促进当地经济
发展。而另一方面的征兆则是，大量的资本外流，全国贫富分化严重，失业人员
大量增加。政府官员及利益获得者花费大量的资本去购买海外生产的高级商品，
大量的资金通过各种手段返流到海外。而××金融问题及社会问题，其状况的严
重远超过当年的阿根庭。积极扩张的财政政策正在为未来的中国积累崩溃的种子。
政府财政没有钱，也是靠出卖国有资产来维持政府开支。可是，中国与阿根庭有
一点不同的是，当年的阿根庭是个高福利的国家，大量的财富用于社会。而今日
的中国则没有这个负担。但这个负担也有好处，就是在危机的时候可以缓解社会
矛盾，救济穷人。大家想一想，中国如果出现了阿根庭式的经济危机，谁管穷百
姓啊？有钱人早跑了啊，可百姓往哪里跑？他们连饭都吃不上，还有前去移民？
７) 通货膨胀引起贫富分化加大，外资抽逃
阿根廷通货膨胀造成什么问题呢？就是百姓贫富分化加大。有钱人卷钱走了，
知道消息的人也卷钱走了。所以受痛苦的是老百姓。这种情况下，政府信用受到
很大打击。打击之后，造成汇率上，货币体系上的非常大的变化，外国对政府及
经济不信任，紧接着外资抽逃。这点跟大陆一样。大陆现在，外资抽逃去年开始
非常明显，几年来，二万五千亿美元的外资跑了啊。象西部石油工程，一下子３
００- ４００亿美元抽逃出来。为什么抽逃？就是他们看到中国不稳定，经济乱
象太多。外国人都不傻，不是说，几个亿都花了，也勘探出哪有石油了，该投资
采石油了，跑了，哪有那么傻呢？他觉得不值得，几百个亿投进去，万一政府一
乱的话，真的百姓没饭吃，要砸油管的。
新疆就出现了这种情况。在大陆有很多“致富”的方法，很简单，就是准备
个胶皮管，用榔头在输油管凿个窟窿，插上胶皮管，用抽油机来抽石油。他们天
天凿，天天抽。石油公司派很多人去巡逻，开始巡逻队还抓抽油的人，后来觉得，
抓他们罚款还不如我也去抽，这样发财多快啊。所以在新疆，很多人抽油。我去
新疆就看到了。输油管通常离公路很近，我看到管道边有许多像绳子一样的东西
挂在那里，别人告诉我那都是抽油用的。没人管。西方石油公司看到法制不行，
抓不了，×国政府都互相保护的，乡里乡亲的，怎么抓呢？大家都是不偷白不偷，
“爱国主义”这么强，偷“美帝国主义”的油，那当然要偷阿！所以很多西方石
油公司撤走。
早几年，我就预测说×国政府最终要走向通货膨胀的道路，这不是我草庵居
士本事大，而是××太无能，本质上的东西改不了，他改革了二十年，本质上的
独×改了吗？没有嘛。这点他都改不了，经济上能有大的作为吗？我看××是七
岁看到老，只要他还维持现在的体制，别说改革二十年，就是五十年，还是保持
现状。经济规律不是靠嘴说就能改变的，那是要拿出真东西。这通货膨胀的规律
也是一定的，政府没有钱，财政赤字一大堆，怎么办，总不能靠侵略别国去打家
劫舍吧。没别的办法，只有靠通货膨胀，让百姓来承担。到时候，穷百姓还得发
扬“××主义风格”，民族主义大发扬。不过，有钱人是不会这样的，他们早跑
到海外西方国家去了，谁和你发扬××主义风格，那不是傻瓜吗？
８) 经济学家对中国经济改变看法
不过，起重要作用还是有的，我是看衰派，大陆讲是崩溃论的鼓吹者，但也
有看好的人，给他们出建议的人，这人叫谢国忠，他是摩根士丹利驻亚洲的首席
经济学家。这个人去年上半年以前一直吹××党好，来投资吧。后来，去年年中
的时候，他变了，他整天说中国房地产泡沫化，经济危机马上就要爆发，为什么？
他很清楚他看到的是什么。中国不是他以前说的那么好，能赚钱是好，但不能因
为赚钱把自己送监狱去啊。美国可不是中国，那里有严格的法律制度，你不能误
导投资人，否则你就是欺诈，那可是联邦重罪。结果，看好的人，最近变成了最
厉害的崩溃论鼓吹者。
９) 贪官化国有资产为己有的内幕
中国经济就是这样。很多人看中国经济就只看表像。前两天，人大刚刚公布，
公安部部长助理讲的，有４０００个贪官外逃，带走５００亿美金，等于每个人
带走一亿人民币。所以中国大陆，干什么都不行，最好是什么呢？当个银行行长，
哪怕分行行长，都能带１０个亿人民币走。大家辛辛苦苦打工，别说四年，就是
４０年，你都赚不到１０亿人民币。哈尔滨的那个高山，做银行分行行长只有四
年，就带走１０亿人民币。还有个官方没透露的事情，建设银行吉林分行，一下
就蒸发了三个亿人民币。当银行行长是多好的生意啊，抢银行都没有他们厉害，
你什么时候，在哪个国家看到抢银行的土匪一下就能抢一个亿美元，哪得用多少
辆汽车来装啊。一个手提公文箱才能装一百万美元现金，一个亿美元就得用一百
个公文箱，要是装人民币，得用一千个公文箱，每人一次提两箱，那得去五百个
人，你们看见过五百个人排队抢劫银行的吗？要是去两个人抢银行，光是搬钱就
得把他们两个人累死，一箱钱大约是二十五磅，一千箱是两万多磅，十多吨重啊，
这是体力活，抢银行又不能慢悠悠的偷工减料，得多快好省抓紧时间，能干这个
的都能评为全国劳动模范，要是在一个小时都能搬完，那就得是世界劳动模范。
多光荣啊。
中国的贪官这么多，你可能会问，中国经济挺好的，没见着有问题阿？大家
可能没注意到，中国是一个封闭的体系，跟阿根廷一样，实行固定汇率。跟阿根
廷不同的是，中国是公×制，也就是说，土地、矿山等资源是国有的，不允许买
卖的。没有买卖的时候，它就没有价值，也就是，它的价值没有在人民币体系体
现出来。人民币发行的时候，没有把土地、矿山作为货币基准价。这种情况下，
大家都是把现有的资源，你挖到的媒，产的钢铁等作为货币流通资源。但土地卖
的时候，他们喜欢合资，卖土地、矿山给外国人的时候，他们拿到的是美元。等
于说，土地、矿山等在体现价值的时候是在人民币之外的系统在流通，是在美元
系统流通，而美元用作外汇储备去了。人民币系统不包括或包括很少一部分土地、
矿山等资源。这种情况下，等于人民币出售时，增加了信用金，等于人民币是增
值了。所以贪官偷漏钱，你们感觉不到。你看它卖那么多地，什么时候在人民币
系统流通？没有！另外，矿山、土地在美元系统流通时，你更看不到了。所以，
中国百姓说，没看到那么多贪官拿那么多钱，要真有那么多贪官，中国早垮了。
垮不了，为什么？中国矿山、土地价值还有１００万亿，每年才偷了四千亿人民
币，想偷完，早着了。四千亿在一百万亿里面才占多少比例啊？千分之四啊。你
存了一千人民币，丢了四块人民币，你会急吗？能影响你生活吗？所以××的经
济体系有两套，人民币体系和外汇体系，而他们偷钱，看不出来，你根本不知道，
知道了也感觉不出多少影响。
１０) 中国经济拉美化还造成教育分化
×国政府的根是××主义，身子是社×主义，穿长袍马褂，它的帽子改成资
本主义。戴个礼帽，还穿着马褂呢！它讲“中国特色社×主义”，那个色，你不
能那么理解，应该是“色情”的色。你看在中国，小姐遍地。中国经济的整个发
展过程，跟拉美化的过程很接近。拉美化的特点就是贫富分化，贫富分化造成教
育分化，因为政府没钱的时候，最容易砍的就是教育经费。在美国也是，你注意
一下就可以发现，当财政赤字的时候，最先砍的是教育经费，然后是社保经费。
最容易当选的时候，也是，竞选者会说，“我们要增加教育经费，给儿童一个好
保证，然后要增加建保。”拉美国家也是，先减教育经费，而后是社保经费。越
穷的人越没说话权力，造成分化。所以有钱人一看，我要跟当官的在一块儿，要
不然，我也成穷人了，所以权、利结合。中国大陆走的就完全是这条路。
１１) 通货膨胀导致地方经济割据，与中央矛盾加大
现在中国大陆通货膨胀刚刚开始，大家可以看到，粮食等基础材料都在上涨。
人大开会时说，中国通货膨胀刚刚开始，后发力量还没有发挥出来，要大家提高
警惕。老百姓怎么提高警惕呀？政府走到这一步，它没有办法控制。我知道温家
宝想控制，可他没办法。现在地方政府和中央政府在政治上是统一的，都是××，
因为他们知道，这条船破了，大家不能凿洞，得去补，否则大家都得沈。但是经
济上是割据的，因为有利益在。地方财政不愿上交中央，尤其象福建、广东等发
达地方。他讲，我为什么要上交？上交后都补给甘肃、西藏去了，我的老百姓受
穷，经济发展不好。所以都想办法隐瞒。所以这条船上，你看很多人在补洞，但
你不能拆我的床板去补洞，我得拆他的床来补洞。
胡、温刚刚上台，需要地方支援，地方不支援，他们也做不下去。怎么办呢？
就讨价还价。大家回想一下，朱镕基时代的时候，朱镕基跑到各省去跟地方谈判，
谈国税的问题，最后形成银行体制变化。取消省行，改地区行，收国税上来。温
家宝现在收不上来。在地方税务局呢？是保地方税收，不保国税。这次中央政府
又改了，地方政府卖地，有钱了，但中央没钱，所以要学美国收地产税。两个月
前，我在圣地牙哥的加州大学分校讲，中央政府一定会这么做。结果温××很听
我话，这不，人大开会通过了，今年７月份施行。表面上看地方政府和中央政府
是一致的，其实不是，是割据的。地方政府是很反对收地产税的，因为几种税一
合并后，无形中就压低了房子、土地的价格，因为承受能力都在那里。而且地方
政府的财政越来越依靠出卖土地的收入。
我再透露个秘密，这次开人大会时，在私下开会时，他们一致反对中央收土
地税，但是温××特地跑到一个小组会上讲，这个政策是不能改变的，我们要坚
定不移要执行的。从这点上看，中央与地方政府在财政上矛盾越来越大。从表面
上看，好象中国经济挺平稳的，但实际上，中央与地方矛盾加大，要不就是，中
央向地方妥协，而不是地方向中央妥协。我的观点就是这样的。最终，沿海省市
与中央政府靠近，而内地省市和中央拉开。新疆、西藏独立就会出来，那边人会
越来越不满。因为中央财政主要依靠东部沿海城市，而西部交钱少，政策、资源
就给的少，说话的权力也没了。这不象在美国，靠选举，它这是谁给钱多谁声音
大。而另一方面，富裕发达的省份，上缴的钱多了，时间一长也会闹分裂，凭什
么我创造了财富要白给他们？穷的省份也想，我穷，还不是你们廉价地利用政策
挖我们的地下资源，凭什么我的煤和石油就白送你们用？这种情况一旦延续久了，
你们说，能不分裂吗？别说七国论，连十国都可能产生.
Redirected from http://www.tianya.cn/publicforum/Content/house/1/12474.shtml
引言
一到这来，刚一进门，就有朋友认出我来，所以我真是非常荣幸，我真是不
知道什么时候成了名人了。不过有一点，朋友跟我讲，“你到哪里去，都有朋友
管你饭吃。”这回，我真的相信这一点。
非常感谢大家，其实我不是什么专家，我是做生意的，做什么生意呢？用中
文讲就是证券公司，在加州是做这个的。每次都有很多人问我，“草庵阿，你老
说中国经济不好，其实中国经济看上去挺不错的，你看那高楼大厦盖的。”包括
我很多白人朋友跟我说，“我们到上海一看哪，我们纽约建了一百年才建成这模
样，上海才建了二十年，这高楼大厦就快超过纽约了。怎么说经济不好呢？”也
有很多人问我，“你每次出去肯定别有用心，你干吗说中国不好，你是中国人，
你这不是反华、反×吗？”其实我跟他们一直在讲，我干吗要反华反×呢？中国
有句话说，看见别人做错事了，咱说说他，叫他做点好事不对吗？国家吗，挺爱
她的，每次看她做错事了，我就提点建议。不过，你们知道，提建议也是很难的，
稍一不留神，就反华、反×了，挺麻烦的。
不过，你知道，××高层吧，他们说话也经常不小心。他们经常说，你看我
们中国真好，经济增长９% ，都是高楼大厦。但是偶尔呢，他们自己一不留神，
就把消息透露出来了。这次人大会议，３月９号开的会，财政部长金人庆讲了，
我们这个坏帐，以前四大银行的坏帐啊，拨出去１. ４万亿人民币，拨到四大资
产公司去了。现在四大资产公司卖不出去，结果还得叫财政部给解决。我以前就
跟大家讲啊，银行坏帐最终还是要叫老百姓承担。结果这次他是第一次承认了，
没办法，坏帐解决不了。
１) 贪官卷款外逃，银行拒负责任
另外还有件事情，想跟大家报告一下。大家可能都知道哈尔滨跑出去一个高
山，带走十亿人民币。这在国内是很大一个事，今天讲的不是他跑的问题，而是
因为很多人的钱搁在银行里叫他给卷走了。中国银行和中国人民银行协商，这个
钱补不补？大家都知道在美国的情况，我就有这个经历，我是到欧洲，结果我的
银行卡，就是ＢＯＡ( ＢａｎｋｏｆＡｍｅｒｉｃａ，美国银行) 的现金卡给丢
了，我还不知道，隔了两天才知道。就打电话给银行，发现有３０００块美金让
人给刷走了。结果银行告诉我，你别着急，我们马上把钱补给你，我们去调查。
这是美国的信用，其实是我搞丢的，它银行为什么要承担呢？美国就是这样规定
的。中国十亿人民币被卷走之后，中国银行就提出一个理由，说高山属个人诈骗，
跟我们银行没有关系，你们谁存的钱，谁自己承担。结果就引起很大争论，储户，
包括哈尔滨高速公路都说你们中国银行有信用，我才存钱到你那里去，不然，谁
往你那里存啊？中行说，不对，因为他个人更换你的钱了，我们银行没有想偷你
的，是他个人诈骗，所以你要告，告他去。所以很多储户很急，说我们不能跑到
加拿大告他去啊，×国政府都找不到他，我们上哪儿找他去？所以中国银行啊，
就出现这种信用问题。遇到问题呢，他们就推。为什么这么推呢？这个中国银行
哈尔滨分行就说了，现在银行实行承包制。我们发工资只发６０% ，另４０% 年
底才发。他拿了十亿走阿，等于把我们全省银行职工工资的４０% 都拿走了还不
止。黑龙江省中行账面上盈利４０００多万，实际是亏了四个多亿，新上任的行
长还说一年要盈利十个亿，看起来，０５年是盈利不了了，因为提前都给卷走了，
想盈利也盈利不了了。所以，中国银行的信用很成问题了。
２) 贪官被捕，新官总结是因“不团结”
另一个事，哎，我这一上来就报告不好的事。咱说点好的。我再报导一个消
息，我是看天下卫视，在洛杉矶有。说在兰州有一个私人企业家叫张国芳被抓了。
结果他一牵扯之后呢，兰州市委书记王军、市长张玉舜、副市长杨在溪等在内的
７０多名官员一块给抓了。之后，中央政府和甘肃省政府就派一个新书记去。这
个新书记叫陈宝生，就职演说就叫卫星电视给播出来了，刚好叫我给看到了。他
怎么讲呢，他说，“我们兰州市出这么大问题，反映我们干部不团结阿！你们互
相内斗，我们这个地方怎么能出现好干部呢？你们没法得到提拔的。”你看，他
们７０多个官员被抓，他总结问题是因为不团结，内斗把他们给捅出来了。我听
完之后，觉得他们这些官员都很胆大，没有顾忌，“水平也都很高”。在美国这
么讲话，好像布希也得下台。西安晚报３月３号还报导了讲话原文，你们可以看
看，他们怎么不团结。说你们不团结，连市长、书记都给抓了。以后要团结，有
什么事，要大家商量，商量好了之后，才能说出去。中国有很多这样的事情。
ＩＩ中国房地产现状
１) 危险的中国房地产
我到达拉斯来，感觉一个特点，这儿的房子真便宜。很羡慕。我住在朋友家
３０００多尺的房子才卖２０万，在洛杉矶是不可想像的事情。在洛杉矶，一尺
是７００到８００块钱，３０００多尺要卖２００多万，这里简直是天堂啊。我
以后要移民到这来，买这房子。洛杉矶的房子我都不能承受，刚看这里的报纸广
告，一栋四千八百尺的房子，外带一个网球场，一个游泳池，才卖十五万，这简
直是白送啊，在洛杉矶二百万都买不到。可是，上海的房子比洛杉矶还厉害。我
有一个朋友，上海人，是个医生，是做脊椎整形的医生，生意很赚钱。他说，现
在上海的房子卖的很好，一套３房的公寓才卖５０万美金。要投资去买两套。我
当时跟他说，不能买。他说，不行，大家都抢购，不买是傻瓜。他真的回大陆去
买，还要排队买。后来，在上海呆３个月就回来了。之后告诉我，他原本要买两
套，后来退了一套，说不退不行，因为他发现他们骗他。他说，当他去买房子的
时候，人家告诉他没房子，要排队。当他拿着机票给他们看的时候，说他在美国
有生意，马上要回去。结果人家又告诉他有两套房子，要卖给他。他说，不能让
别人把他这上海人看得太傻，他要亲自看看去。结果发现房子都有人买，却没人
住，这很奇怪。当时就买了一套，另一套房子的定金就不要了。两个星期前跟我
说，“我发现他们买房子是假的，我找了个人去查，发现他们员工一个人就贷款
买了十几套房子，买了之后再卖给我们，自己在炒。把我们美国人都当傻瓜了。”
中国房地产的状况就是这样。中国银行在上海的一家分行就贷款了１. ８万
亿人民币，你知道中国大陆人民总共储蓄额只有将近１０万亿。你想一想，光上
海一家银行就贷款了１. ８万亿，中国老百姓怎么有可能去支付这个房价？实际
上，北京、上海的房子已经超过纽约、洛杉矶了。洛杉矶好莱坞才不过８００元
一尺，上海多少？两万块人民币／米阿！那是公寓啊，而不是独立的房子啊！所
以房子市场是很危险的，但是中国经济就是这样的。
２) 地方政府靠卖地维持财政
××拉动经济，以前朱镕基是讲积极财政，发行国债推动经济。中国推动国
有经济肯定要比私有经济效率要低。在这种效率低的时候，产生的效果就是，经
济效益越来越差，社会发展越来越慢。在这种情况下，政府税收越来越少，经济
会停滞。这时候，财政扩大之后，中央负债多，开支减少，地方政府就没钱了。
怎么办呢？广东、福建等地就比较聪明，开始卖地。国家土地在公×制的制
度下，是没有进入流通领域的。土地只有称为商品交易时才有价值，中国土地都
国有，它没有交易，因而没有产生价格，所以在人民币流通体系中，根本不包括
土地价值、矿山价值。在这种情况下，地方政府卖地，等于产生额外收入，弥补
地方财政。
甘肃、陕西省政府说，我们当初每次修公路、招商引资，我们找老百姓捐款、
收税，中央政府说我们乱收费，我们落个不好的名声。你看，上海、广东卖地，
卖一笔是一笔，一笔都是几百万，上千万。结果甘肃、陕西也都开始卖地。卖的
钱是不交中央政府的，只交一点税，大部分是归地方政府。所以中国的房地产不
是中央在支援，而是地方政府必须要卖地，卖地之后的收入维持省、市、县一级
地方政府的运转，那样他们才出政绩。在这种情况下，假若我要当市长，我的哥
们做房地产，当我们俩沟通好之后，将土地卖给他，他赚了钱，大家都有份儿，
地方也有钱了，效益也出来了，市政建设也好了。
３) 政府强迫**、强迫买房，对百姓实施二次盘剥
中国跟美国不一样。在美国**的时候，有别的房子可以去租。在中国，没
有可租的房子去住，特别大批房子**之后，农村和城市都没有出租房子为生的
人。在这种情况下，进一步逼迫**户再次买房子。原来房子土地的价值呢，等
于没有价值，只给很少的钱补偿。强迫你到郊区去买房的时候，等于你遭受了二
次剥削，那钱滚动一次，还是流到政府手中，因为房地产资源主要还是掌控在政
府手中。这种情况下，经济有一个小的微循环，回圈中只有一方在盈利，就是政
府。地方政府维持开支，它必须这么做。所以大家看到中国房地产一直在涨，包
括上海市政府官员前些日子还在讲，说上海房价不能跌，跌了要出问题。
４) 汽车贷款坏帐严重的内幕
中国刚刚开始做汽车贷款，这也是金人庆讲的。现在已经查明汽车贷款有多
少坏帐呢？１０００亿人民币。中国买汽车的人很少，现在已有１０００亿人民
币坏帐，收不回来了。他们怎么做呢？他们把汽车买来之后，到别的省卖掉，把
钱装兜里就走了。变相贷款，查都没地方去查，中国没这种制度，又没有社会安
全号，到哪里去，花点钱就可以换个身份证，谁也找不着他，而且当地警察也不
管，乡里乡亲的，给我两万块钱，就看不见他了。就这样的，很奇怪很奇怪的现
象。中国房地产整个市场也是这么骗。
ＩＩＩ大陆经济拉美化的趋势
１) 大陆通货膨胀刚刚开始
另外一个，大陆很可能会通货膨胀。其实前两天大陆公布了一个资料，说整
个基础原材料上涨到了７１% 。可是，中国大陆刚刚公布说我们通货膨胀３. ９
% ，我就搞不明白，７１% 的基础原材料上涨，包括矿砂、石油、铁矿石都涨，
你说做这个杯子的壳得用铝吧，它的价格不可能只涨４% ，原料涨７１% ，价格
只涨４% ，你说，不大可能的事情。中国大陆说话，你不能太相信。就跟前些时
候大陆统计局局长说的，大骗子说小骗子，大流氓说小流氓。你们地方政府不能
说统计资料差４０% ，你们统计的不准确，我们中央统计的准确。真的差４０% ？
那４０% 相当于×国政府一年的财政收入啊。透露个消息，这消息也是他讲的，
地方政府的ＧＤＰ与中央政府统计的ＧＤＰ差４０% 。几乎相当于中国大陆政府
一年的财政收入，可是大陆政府公布的财政收入没有这么多，只有３０００多亿。
可是相差的４０% ，差４６００亿。从这点可以看到，中国大陆政府的财政收入，
可能花的比它公布的要多。他说几乎相当于大陆一年的财政收入。草庵居士经常
揭露他们的资料漏洞，不过，这是他们自己讲的。所以你就知道，中国的财政收
入远远高于它公布的资料。这是财政部长自己讲的话。
２) 拉美经济的特点之一：固定汇率
其实讲来讲去，还是回到原来的话题，中国的经济怎么样？拉美经济最好的
国家是阿根廷，巴西。阿根廷的国土面积在拉美国家中算是比较大的，物资比较
好。这个国家有个特点，就是９９年亚洲金融风暴，包括巴西金融破产，对阿根
廷都没有影响。阿根廷都挺过来了，就跟中国一样。亚洲金融风暴，韩国也倒了，
印尼、马来西亚也倒了，中国挺过来了，很相近的例子。拉美国家８０年代以前
经济都不好，后来，阿根廷上台一个新的总统，叫梅内姆，很懂经济。他执行几
个政策：固定汇率，跟中国大陆一样，一刀切，阿根廷的货币叫比索，外国资产
进来后统统换成比索，不准美元流通。这样一来，外汇储量增加很快。利率统一，
由政府控制。采取的政策跟邓××一样，改革、开放，引进外资，发展外资经济。
经济增长很快，最高达到９. ７% ，最低达到７% ，中国达到９. ３% 。阿根廷
的经济真的增长的很快，外汇储备增长很快，货币稳定。货币值很稳定的时候，
外商觉得投资很好，大量投资。经济增长很好。１９９９年１０月，阿根廷总统
梅内姆( ＣａｒｌｏｓＭｅｎｅｍ) 受邀在国际货币基金组织/ 世界银行年会上
发表演讲，另一位演讲者是美国总统克林顿。这是对梅内姆本人政绩的奖赏，更
是阿根廷荣耀的象征。那时候，巴西也倒了，智利也倒了，墨西哥也倒了，只有
阿根廷是ＮＯ. １。跟中国的情况类似。
然而，仅仅两年过后，阿根廷就陷入了严重的经济、社会、政治危机之中，
波及面之广，程度之深超出了绝大多数人的预料。２００１年１２月间，银行存
款被冻结，ＩＭＦ宣布停止救援，经济部长卡瓦略( ＤｏｍｉｎｇｏＣａｖａｌ
ｌｏ) 和总统德拉鲁阿( ＤｅｌａＲｕａ) 相继辞职，阿政府宣布停止支付外债。
２００２年１月６日，国会通过《公共紧急状态和汇率体制改革法》，授予
新总统杜哈德( ＥｄｕａｒｄｏＤｕｈａｌｄｅ) 几乎不受限制的经济权力以应
对危机，同时放弃了以１：１的平价钉住美元的货币局体制。随后，银行存款和
政府债务按规定汇率被强制比索化。２月１１日，外汇市场重新开放，比索开始
大幅贬值，政府由此从银行和民间掠夺了大量财富。由于政府对私有产权的大规
模侵害，私人投资和生产的动力丧失殆尽，精英人才持续外流。而且，假如当局
不能迅速重建货币信誉、严格财政约束，曾经使阿根廷人深受其苦达数十年之久
的严重通货膨胀会很快来临。仅仅几年时间，阿根廷从荣耀走入了低谷，从宠儿
变成了弃儿。
３) 拉美经济的特点之二：引进外资
阿根庭曾经是×国政府学习的榜样，××曾经排除庞大的访问团去学习他们
的经验。从两国对比上看，阿根廷国土面积近２７８万平方公里，居世界第８位。
自然资源相当丰富。２０００年ＧＤＰ为２８５０亿美元，出口总额仅占ＧＤＰ
总量的１０. ８% ，进口总额占ＧＤＰ的１１. ４% 。而同时期中国的出口、进
口总额占ＧＤＰ的比重分别为２５. ９% 和２３. ２% 。从国土资源和经济规模
来看，阿根廷实际上是一个大国，至少是一个潜在的大国。经济这么好的一个国
家，到了２００２年出问题了。它采取的第一个政策就是引进外资，以外资为主
然后是固定汇率。
４) 拉美经济的特点之三：积极财政
第三个政策是积极财政政策。跟××一步一步走的很类似。为什么采取积极
财政呢？经济增长到一定程度，拉动不起来的时候，它要扩大投资，它觉得外汇
储备多，就大量投资。但在法律不健全的情况下，出现问题了。只要跟阿根廷官
员沾亲带故，就都有饭吃，能吃点肉，最起码能喝点肥油汤。这个时候，阿根廷
腐败出现。积极财政，就是政府投资，刚才讲了，政府投资大的时候，必然压制
私有经济，政府有权力，有势力，私人经济怎么跟它竞争？
另一方面，政府投资效率低，这是几十年的历史和××主义史都证明了的事
情。结果经济往下走，财政税收上不来，政府就不能维持了。它发行的国债多，
要还债了，要赋税了，怎么办？阿根廷采取政策，这个政策叫朱镕基给学去了，
什么政策呢？就是增加金融交易税，利息要交税，股票也要交税等等。考察团去
阿根廷别的没学会，把这个给学会了。结果回来，百姓银行存款利息也交税，股
票也交税。这样一来，好像是税收增加了，银行存的钱去投资，但是，国有经济
大量强制在那里的时候，私有经济就缺乏空间了，这种空间叫国有经济给压着。
大家赚不到钱，私人也不会投资，大家都在看着。在这种情况下，政府出钱抬高
股市。阿根廷政府就用各种政策刺激、抬高股市。就跟前两年，大陆股票高达２
４００点，涨的很高，产生大量交易后，政府赚交易税，维持政府。
要想维护货币体制的信誉和金融系统的稳定，政府必须严格财政约束。在政
府机会主义( ｓｔａｔｅｏｐｐｏｒｔｕｎｉｓｍ) 和干预主义严重的国家，财
政赤字始终是对货币稳定的最大威胁，因为征收通货膨胀税以弥补财政赤字是政
府的惯常做法。阿根廷的历史尤其表明了这一点。不难理解，如果政府开支没有
节制，财政赤字持续增长，人们就很难相信政府坚决维护货币局体制的诚意。如
果经常专案盈余很少或没有盈余，那么只有通过资本专案的盈余来提供储备。为
此，当然要保证货币稳定和金融系统的稳健以防止资本外流，更关键的是要吸引
不断增加的外资流入。这要求政府在外债总量与ＧＤＰ规模、政府财政收入之间
保持适当比例，以保证自己的偿债能力，毕竟偿债能力是该政府能从国际市场上
持续融资的前提条件。
显然，明智的政府应该一方面通过推进自×化改革、改善支撑经济发展的制
度架构来激发国内经济的活力，从总供给方面增强经济的效率和实力，从而提高
财政收入；另一方面尽量削减不必要的政府支出，以避免财政赤字的发生和增长。
财政赤字的增长是危险的。尤其要认识到，用扩张财政支出来刺激总需求不可能
实现长期稳定的经济增长。
但事实上，阿根庭政府确实是个不负责任的政府，官僚和极×成为这个政权
的主要特征，“维护稳定”成为这个政权的最重要任务，这点和今日的××有着
极为相似的地方。就是这样一个不负责任的政府实施的不负责任的财政政策，一
方面( 主要是高税收) 摧毁了经济增长的基础，另一方面导致了财政赤字和债务
规模的激增，最终使得政府无力支付外债，破坏了货币局体制和金融系统的稳定。
前ＩＭＦ权威经济学家穆萨( ＭｉｃｈａｅｌＭｕｓｓａ) 有这样一段经典
评论：“………( 这场) 灾难的根本原因在于，阿根廷政府长期以来实行的不负
责任的财政政策。对阿根廷来说，这是一个古老的令人沮丧的故事。为了满足各
种各样的政治需要和压力，阿根廷( 各级) 政府形成了花销远远超过税入的持久
的倾向。只要能借到钱来支撑其过度开支，不管国内或国外，它在哪里还有信用，
它就从哪里借款。当进一步借钱不再可行或可能时，就求助于通货膨胀和( 或)
公开中止偿还债务以及剥夺债权人。这就是阿方辛总统执政时期发生的事情，且
在１９９０年的超级通货膨胀中登峰造极。细节上稍有差异但实质上完全相同，
这也是此前５０年中( 导致了早期的几次金融危机) 不断发生的故事。可以说，
在财政事物的管理中，阿根廷政府就像一个慢性酒精中毒者，一旦开始”吸收
“赤字支出的政治压力，他就再也难以自制，直到造成相当于醉倒的经济后果。
( 不幸的是) 在过去的１０年间，这个故事又一次发生，并且在规模上超过了过
去的最高”成就“………”
５) 拉美经济的特点之四：通货膨胀
到最后，经济还是不行。就跟现在中国一样，股市也跌了，经济内需还是不
足，怎么办呢？政府又出一个招，就是通货膨胀。通货膨胀最简单，政府多印钞
票，一印钞票，债就没了，钞票也贬值了。本来你银行存款有１００万，一年后，
贬了２０% ，一下剩８０万，再过一年，又贬２０% ，剩下６０万不到。贬了几
年，政府的负债是没了，你上辈子辛辛苦苦赚的退休的钱只剩３０万。阿根廷就
这样。它通货膨胀到什么程度？
从１９６７年开始至１９９０年，阿根廷历任政府先后实施了８个经济稳定
计划，试图加强财政和货币约束，但均告失败。这段历史清楚表明了该国政府的
机会主义和掠夺性动机是何等强烈，由一个不负责任的政府操纵着货币政策和财
政政策是何等的危险。通过扩大货币发行量，政府不必经过国会( 民众) 的正式
认可，就可以获取大笔收益以弥补财政赤字；经由恶性通货膨胀，政府可以轻松
地把国内债务一笔勾销。
从１９８５年到１９９０年间，铸币税收益占了阿政府总财政收入的大约５
４% ，其中在１９８７年这项指标竟然高达８６% 。在１９８７年这项指标竟然
高达８６% 。正是在这样的危机情形下，为了稳定货币、恢复经济增长，由梅内
姆总统领导的政府于１９９１年４月１日实施“可兑换计划( Ｃｏｎｖｅｒｔｉ
ｂｉｌｉｔｙＰｌａｎ) ”，采用货币局体制，维持比索与美元之间１：１的汇
率平价，承诺比索持有者可以按照这一平价不受限制地兑换美元。这一举措的主
要目的在于，保证货币供给过程不受本国政治的操纵，杜绝政府制造通货膨胀的
可能性，借用美元的清偿能力来支撑本币的购买力和民众的信任，实质上是借用
美元或者说美联储的信誉。
从１９９１年４月到１９９８年１２月巴西货币贬值之前，“可转换体制”
在稳定货币和促进经济增长方面发挥了关键作用。在该方案实施后不到三年，通
货膨胀率就从４位数降到了１位数，１９９３年为７. ４% ，１９９４年降为３
. ９% 。货币稳定改善了投资环境，外资大量流入，与此同时阿根廷政府逐步解
除对贸易、投资和资本流动的管制，经济开始强势增长。从１９９０年到１９９
３年，实际ＧＤＰ累积增长了２８% 。最初的复苏过程结束以后，从１９９３年
中到１９９８中，ＧＤＰ年均增长率仍然高达４. ４% ，何况由于受到墨西哥货
币危机的冲击，１９９５年实际ＧＤＰ比１９９４年的水平下降了２. ８% ！同
时期，通胀率保持在更低的水平，其中１９９６年通胀率为０，１９９８年ＣＰ
Ｉ仅比上年增加了０. ９% 。无疑，“可转换体制”功不可没。
１９９４年墨西哥危机发生后，该体制的信誉面临着真正的考验。一方面，
民众和投资者的信心受到影响，美元存款从银行系统大量流出，资本外逃严重，
基础货币相应萎缩。另一方面，“可转换体制”的灵活性又比较成功地缓解了部
分压力，因为阿根廷央行保有在一定程度上调控货币供应量和应付流动性危机的
手段，从而免除了货币贬值的必要性，显然有利于支撑人们的信心。
经历了短暂的急剧衰退之后，１９９５年底阿根廷又恢复了快速经济增长，
一直持续到１９９８年末。正是这些业绩成就了阿根廷的辉煌和荣耀。同一时期，
阿根廷出口部门的业绩更为出色。
在１９９１~ １９９３年间，实际出口总值年均增长１. ８% ，对ＧＤＰ的
迅速增长贡献不大。然而在１９９４~ １９９７年间，出口总值年均增长率高达
１４. ４% ，高于其他７个主要拉美国家总体上１１. １% 的业绩，明显拉动了
整个国内经济的成长。可见，在１９９８年１２月巴西货币贬值之前，根本不存
在( 由于钉住美元导致) 比索高估从而影响出口竞争力的问题。
“可兑换体制”并非僵硬的纯粹的货币局体制，保留了一些中央银行的特征。
这种灵活性在遭受非对称的外部冲击时发挥了缓冲压力的正面作用，尽管也会削
弱人们对货币局体制的信任度。但是，由于中央银行和商业银行系统的储备资产
中含有大量本国政府债券( 主要是美元债务) ，一个严重的危险是，一旦政府无
力支付债务，金融危机必然发生，“可兑换体制”必将岌岌可危。
实际上，“可兑换体制”后来面对的压力并不是自身缺陷造成的，而主要来
源于政府不负责任的财政政策和停滞不前的自×化改革( 如劳动力市场的严格管
制) 。阿根廷经济、社会和政治危机的根本原因正在于此。如果“可兑换体制”
在客观上要对危机负一定责任的话，那就是，在一个不负责任的政府手中，它成
了方便官僚们从国际市场上低成本借钱以满足其挥霍欲望的工具。但是，这不是
“可兑换体制”自身的错，因为它同样能迫使或鼓励一个负责任的政府进一步加
强财政约束，实施更全面的市场化改革，努力改善支撑经济发展的制度基础
现在中国大陆政府也是这样。两年前，也是在德州开会时，我跟他们说，人
民币没有升值的机会，那么多坏帐怎么升值？他们也知道不能升值。我跟他们说，
你一年贬２０% ，老百姓吃点苦，但有一个条件，你看俄国改革时，这么大的变
化，它的一个社保体系和医疗保险不变，老百姓再穷，但饿不死，只是他们享受
权没了。朱镕基一上台，把社保体系砍没了，他省多少钱？一年省掉两万亿。把
医疗保险也给砍了，一下省四万亿。总共城市那点钱，一年砍掉六万亿开销，他
觉得经济发展了。可是老百姓退休时没有钱花，看病没有钱看，社会动乱就出来
了，这是很大问题。阿根廷通货膨胀时，还有社保体系，通货膨胀都受不了，而
中国现在，有通货膨胀但没有社保体系。
６) 政府私有化补充财政收入，取消社保与医疗保险，雪上加霜
坏帐那么多，通货膨胀是必然要走的路。但是我建议他们要把社保解决了。
所以股票市场的国有股闹的那么凶，我说你是７０００万股民重要还是１３亿老
百姓重要？还不如把那十几万亿的人民币钱都做社保基金算了。你每年拿点钱给
老百姓发退休金，救济老百姓，给他们看病有个着落。通货膨胀时，老百姓也就
是吃饭比较困难，以前吃一斤肉，现在吃一两，至少能维持，把困难阶段度过去。
否则，×国政府的坏帐终有一天都要暴露出来的，都要老百姓去承担，有钱人跑
美国，加拿大去，没钱人怎么办呢？你把老百姓钱都坑完，难道你还要再坑第二
次吗？这种情况下，×国政府本来就得要做一个准备工作，就是保障老百姓最低
的一个生活。
但×国政府不这么做，它学阿根廷，学它通货膨胀。前两天刚刚公布，今年
一到三月份大陆通货膨胀率３. ９% ，我真的不相信。去年１２月份他们公布原
材料涨价７１% ，我想７１% 怎么变成３. ９% ？真的太悬殊了。他们讲就是３
. ９% ，你信也得信，这是我们统计的。就跟我上次在明尼苏达讲，山东省讲，
我们的ＧＤＰ是保留资料，没敢多讲。反正他们总是有理由，脸皮很厚，说他们
说谎，他们不承认，说是资料出偏差了。××什么都统一，就是资料，他们不统
一。真是这样的。
再看看阿根庭是如何借私有化来增加政府收入的，１９９１年４月梅内姆总
统争取到了议会的认可，大胆启动了货币局体制。尽管开始ＩＭＦ对此是有疑虑
的，但是还是给予了支援。不幸的是，后来梅内姆难以抗拒各种政治压力，该体
制逐渐成为政府低成本借款的工具。
在ＩＭＦ的隐含担保下，由于比索借用了美元的信誉，国际资本开始大量涌
入，主要是购买阿根廷政府的美元债券。经由中央银行换成比索之后，政府是如
何开销这笔财富的呢？这部分外资几乎没有流向公司融资市场，也没有多少形成
了政府的服务性支出( 如司法、公共安全、教育，基础设施等) 。尽管支援了不
少公共工程项目，但大部分资金还是变成了公共部门雇员的薪水和社会保障支出。
作者：lingbn 回复日期：2005-10-9 09:37:54
相比私人部门，公共部门的就业人数( 传统上就很高) 增加更快，工资率更
高，毋庸质疑生产率也更低。这简直是阿根廷人的盛宴，只要他在公共部门就业
或通过其他途径与这个特权系统保持着亲近的联系。外资一旦被分配到了政府的
受益人手中，大部分被用来购买上好的进口商品，去国外旅游以及投资于国外的
硬通货资产。就这样，由政府借进来的外国资本大部分又经由私人渠道流了出去。
但新一轮外资又流进来，加上政府得自私有化改革的收入作为补充，以维持
国内货币供求和国际收支的平衡。然而，随着这一过程的持续和重复，外债持续
增长，政府开支的增长率也远高于经济增长率。梅内姆总统从９０年代初开始采
取了一些有益的改革措施，包括自×化改革和结构调整，最重要的是１９９１年
４月实施的“可兑换计划”。
在１９９０~ １９９３年期间，经济迅速恢复增长。在此期间，梅内姆还试
图削减财政赤字，消除通货膨胀的隐患。意识到削减政府支出会立即招致选民的
反对，他选择了提高增值税率( 从１６% 分两次提高到２１%)。他还顶住了工会
组织的强烈反对，坚持出售一批国有企业和公用事业。强劲的经济增长，私有化
收益和１９９３年的布拉迪债务重组都有助于改善财政状况，总的公共债务对Ｇ
ＤＰ的比率在１９９３年降到了２９. ２% 。
在这点上和以前的江朱政府积极财政政策及目前的××政府施行的宏观调控
政策非常相象。大家只要一对比，马上就看出了××财政政策走的路线和以前的
阿根庭政府是一模一样。没办法啊，不是××不想走新路，而是社会环境和局势
逼着他必须要走老路。
阿根庭从１９９３年中期开始，经济进入良好的正常增长阶段。然而随着经
济状况的显著改善，梅内姆开始难以抗拒贝隆主义者长期形成的要求政府增加福
利支出的政治压力。１９９４年，财政预算开始大幅度增加。１９９５年，经由
政治策略和许多让步，梅内姆成功地再次当选。为了能再次连任( 宪法是不允许
的) ，在第二任期里他尽量避免触犯他人以争取政治支援。结果，财政开支和政
府债务规模变得难以控制。你们看看，这和当年的江××和朱榕基多相似，利益
交换嘛。
尽管１９９７~ １９９８年的亚洲金融危机没有对阿根廷经济产生多少负面
影响，但毕竟投下了阴影。在ＩＭＦ的督促下，梅内姆也试图削减政府支出，并
采取措施提高劳动力市场的灵活性，但是工会以大规模罢工作为答复，结果作罢。
悲剧的种子就是在繁荣时期种下的。从１９９３年到１９９８年，经济保持着年
均４. ４% 的增长，而且还得益于私有化的收益，但是阿根廷公共债务对ＧＤＰ
的比率从１９９３年的２９. ２% 增加到了１９９８年的４１. ４% ，同期财政
赤字总额对ＧＤＰ的比率增加了１２. ６%(不含１９９３年) ！而阿根廷政府从
未能征收到超过ＧＤＰ２０% 的税收。显然，“荣耀”的背后潜藏着深刻的危机。
在经济繁荣的时期尚且如此，怎么能指望该政府处于经济衰退的时候能有所收敛
呢？
１９９８年１２月以后，阿根廷经济陷入衰退，税收相应减少，同时要求政
府增加补偿性福利支出的压力却不断增长，公共财政状况雪上加霜。梅内姆要求
议会修改宪法为他再次连任总统提供可能性，结果没有成功。在１９９９年１２
月德拉鲁阿继任总统，面对着不断增长的政府债务，他选择了错误的对策——大
规模增税。２０００年１月，政府对于年收入３万比索以上者增加了个人所得税，
同时增加了财产税、饮料( 酒) 税和汽车税费，还对烟草征收特别税。２００１
年４月生效的所谓《竞争力法》( ＣｏｍｐｅｔｉｔｉｖｅｎｅｓｓＬａｗ) 设
立了金融资产交易税。税率最初定为０. ２５% ，后来提高到０. ４% 。２００
１年８月，政府又颁布法令把金融交易税提高到了法律许可的最高限——０. ６
% 。此时，阿根廷的增值税率为２１% ，社会保障和医疗保险税为３１. ９% ，
最高收入所得税为３５% 。你们再看今天的××政府，不也是遇到了这个问题，
怎么办，增税呀。在几年前，朱榕基就已经开始增税了，连银行利息税都开征了。
相比之下，美国的销售税一般在０~ ９% 之间，社会保障和医疗保险税仅为
１５. ３% ，而对银行帐户交易根本不征税。沉重的税务负担严重打击了本来已
经有复苏迹象的国内经济，经济衰退加剧，同时刺激了逃税行为。
其中，金融交易税尤其有害，因为它鼓励了银行储户提取现款，用现金进行
交易以逃避税收。可想而知，政府税入只会缩减。显然，政府已经无力支付债务。
到２００１年第三季度，公共债务达到１４１０亿美元，相当于１９９４年水平
的２倍，但２００１年的ＧＤＰ只比１９９４年增加了５%(人均ＧＤＰ实际上下
降了) 。中国在几年前也是采取了这种策略，这就是施行银行利息税。结果，大
家存款收入还要交金融交易税，这和当年的拉美非常相象。在另一方面看，中国
的公共债务那里是当年阿根庭能比的，人家才一千四百亿美元，可是我们中国，
早就超过了一万亿美元。中国可是比当年的阿根庭“荣耀”多了。是世界历史上
罕见的“盛世”啊。
从全面上看，××目前的状态和阿根庭多么的相象。当年阿根庭出现的问题，
今天的××全都同样存在，而且更严重。××目前是加税，固定汇率，增加国债，
从去年底开始又进行通货膨胀。特别是××的税收，每年都是以百分之二十以上
的比例增加，远高于ＧＤＰ的增长幅度。
政府债务危机威胁着“可兑换体制”和整个金融体系的稳定，因为中央银行
的储备中有大量的政府( 美元) 债券，商业银行的资产中也有不少政府债券和贷
款。尽管债务问题在不断恶化，然而在２００１年３月卡瓦略再次被任命为经济
部长以前，比索的信誉和银行系统仍然相对良好。先前，卡瓦略曾经表示，欧元
应该在外汇储备中与美元平分秋色以解决储备不足问题，而最终比索应该走向浮
动。显然，货币局体制的信誉受到威胁，卡瓦略一上任，银行间比索利率几乎立
刻激增，银行存款的流失开始升级。６月份政府采取了更致命的错误决策，货币
局体制已经名存实亡。６月１９日，卡瓦略宣布实行多轨汇率制，即对于出口部
门比索币值低估，对于进口部门币值高估，所有其他交易按照比索对美元１：１
的平价。此前，政府对于自×兑换基本上没有实施管制，汇率是单一汇率。对于
“可兑换体制”更致命的打击发生在６月２５日，国会通过法案批准了经济部长
卡瓦略提出的计划，打算把比索单一钉住美元的汇率安排转变为钉住由美元和欧
元各占１/ ２所组成的一篮子货币。阿根廷民众和国外投资者的不信任发展为恐
慌，比索利息急升，美元储备加速外流。你们知道未来××会怎么做吗？草庵居
士的狂话先在今天就放这里，××还会和阿根庭走一样的路，采取多国货币一揽
子计划。放弃紧盯美元计划，实行美元，欧元，日元挂钩的一篮子货币。最后的
结果，阿根庭就是例子。
再看今日的××政府，同样是引以为荣地高喊着：“外贸增长和外资投资增
长”是维护中国发展的两大利器。同样也是广发债券，利用各种手段提高公务员
收入，拉拢利益集团。同时，今天的××政府同样也是不去削减政府财政开支，
而是企图扩大税源和提高税率来增加财政收入，与此同时，由于政府无法负担庞
大的财政开支，任由地方政府变卖土地资源来达到维持政府开支及促进当地经济
发展。而另一方面的征兆则是，大量的资本外流，全国贫富分化严重，失业人员
大量增加。政府官员及利益获得者花费大量的资本去购买海外生产的高级商品，
大量的资金通过各种手段返流到海外。而××金融问题及社会问题，其状况的严
重远超过当年的阿根庭。积极扩张的财政政策正在为未来的中国积累崩溃的种子。
政府财政没有钱，也是靠出卖国有资产来维持政府开支。可是，中国与阿根庭有
一点不同的是，当年的阿根庭是个高福利的国家，大量的财富用于社会。而今日
的中国则没有这个负担。但这个负担也有好处，就是在危机的时候可以缓解社会
矛盾，救济穷人。大家想一想，中国如果出现了阿根庭式的经济危机，谁管穷百
姓啊？有钱人早跑了啊，可百姓往哪里跑？他们连饭都吃不上，还有前去移民？
７) 通货膨胀引起贫富分化加大，外资抽逃
阿根廷通货膨胀造成什么问题呢？就是百姓贫富分化加大。有钱人卷钱走了，
知道消息的人也卷钱走了。所以受痛苦的是老百姓。这种情况下，政府信用受到
很大打击。打击之后，造成汇率上，货币体系上的非常大的变化，外国对政府及
经济不信任，紧接着外资抽逃。这点跟大陆一样。大陆现在，外资抽逃去年开始
非常明显，几年来，二万五千亿美元的外资跑了啊。象西部石油工程，一下子３
００- ４００亿美元抽逃出来。为什么抽逃？就是他们看到中国不稳定，经济乱
象太多。外国人都不傻，不是说，几个亿都花了，也勘探出哪有石油了，该投资
采石油了，跑了，哪有那么傻呢？他觉得不值得，几百个亿投进去，万一政府一
乱的话，真的百姓没饭吃，要砸油管的。
新疆就出现了这种情况。在大陆有很多“致富”的方法，很简单，就是准备
个胶皮管，用榔头在输油管凿个窟窿，插上胶皮管，用抽油机来抽石油。他们天
天凿，天天抽。石油公司派很多人去巡逻，开始巡逻队还抓抽油的人，后来觉得，
抓他们罚款还不如我也去抽，这样发财多快啊。所以在新疆，很多人抽油。我去
新疆就看到了。输油管通常离公路很近，我看到管道边有许多像绳子一样的东西
挂在那里，别人告诉我那都是抽油用的。没人管。西方石油公司看到法制不行，
抓不了，×国政府都互相保护的，乡里乡亲的，怎么抓呢？大家都是不偷白不偷，
“爱国主义”这么强，偷“美帝国主义”的油，那当然要偷阿！所以很多西方石
油公司撤走。
早几年，我就预测说×国政府最终要走向通货膨胀的道路，这不是我草庵居
士本事大，而是××太无能，本质上的东西改不了，他改革了二十年，本质上的
独×改了吗？没有嘛。这点他都改不了，经济上能有大的作为吗？我看××是七
岁看到老，只要他还维持现在的体制，别说改革二十年，就是五十年，还是保持
现状。经济规律不是靠嘴说就能改变的，那是要拿出真东西。这通货膨胀的规律
也是一定的，政府没有钱，财政赤字一大堆，怎么办，总不能靠侵略别国去打家
劫舍吧。没别的办法，只有靠通货膨胀，让百姓来承担。到时候，穷百姓还得发
扬“××主义风格”，民族主义大发扬。不过，有钱人是不会这样的，他们早跑
到海外西方国家去了，谁和你发扬××主义风格，那不是傻瓜吗？
８) 经济学家对中国经济改变看法
不过，起重要作用还是有的，我是看衰派，大陆讲是崩溃论的鼓吹者，但也
有看好的人，给他们出建议的人，这人叫谢国忠，他是摩根士丹利驻亚洲的首席
经济学家。这个人去年上半年以前一直吹××党好，来投资吧。后来，去年年中
的时候，他变了，他整天说中国房地产泡沫化，经济危机马上就要爆发，为什么？
他很清楚他看到的是什么。中国不是他以前说的那么好，能赚钱是好，但不能因
为赚钱把自己送监狱去啊。美国可不是中国，那里有严格的法律制度，你不能误
导投资人，否则你就是欺诈，那可是联邦重罪。结果，看好的人，最近变成了最
厉害的崩溃论鼓吹者。
９) 贪官化国有资产为己有的内幕
中国经济就是这样。很多人看中国经济就只看表像。前两天，人大刚刚公布，
公安部部长助理讲的，有４０００个贪官外逃，带走５００亿美金，等于每个人
带走一亿人民币。所以中国大陆，干什么都不行，最好是什么呢？当个银行行长，
哪怕分行行长，都能带１０个亿人民币走。大家辛辛苦苦打工，别说四年，就是
４０年，你都赚不到１０亿人民币。哈尔滨的那个高山，做银行分行行长只有四
年，就带走１０亿人民币。还有个官方没透露的事情，建设银行吉林分行，一下
就蒸发了三个亿人民币。当银行行长是多好的生意啊，抢银行都没有他们厉害，
你什么时候，在哪个国家看到抢银行的土匪一下就能抢一个亿美元，哪得用多少
辆汽车来装啊。一个手提公文箱才能装一百万美元现金，一个亿美元就得用一百
个公文箱，要是装人民币，得用一千个公文箱，每人一次提两箱，那得去五百个
人，你们看见过五百个人排队抢劫银行的吗？要是去两个人抢银行，光是搬钱就
得把他们两个人累死，一箱钱大约是二十五磅，一千箱是两万多磅，十多吨重啊，
这是体力活，抢银行又不能慢悠悠的偷工减料，得多快好省抓紧时间，能干这个
的都能评为全国劳动模范，要是在一个小时都能搬完，那就得是世界劳动模范。
多光荣啊。
中国的贪官这么多，你可能会问，中国经济挺好的，没见着有问题阿？大家
可能没注意到，中国是一个封闭的体系，跟阿根廷一样，实行固定汇率。跟阿根
廷不同的是，中国是公×制，也就是说，土地、矿山等资源是国有的，不允许买
卖的。没有买卖的时候，它就没有价值，也就是，它的价值没有在人民币体系体
现出来。人民币发行的时候，没有把土地、矿山作为货币基准价。这种情况下，
大家都是把现有的资源，你挖到的媒，产的钢铁等作为货币流通资源。但土地卖
的时候，他们喜欢合资，卖土地、矿山给外国人的时候，他们拿到的是美元。等
于说，土地、矿山等在体现价值的时候是在人民币之外的系统在流通，是在美元
系统流通，而美元用作外汇储备去了。人民币系统不包括或包括很少一部分土地、
矿山等资源。这种情况下，等于人民币出售时，增加了信用金，等于人民币是增
值了。所以贪官偷漏钱，你们感觉不到。你看它卖那么多地，什么时候在人民币
系统流通？没有！另外，矿山、土地在美元系统流通时，你更看不到了。所以，
中国百姓说，没看到那么多贪官拿那么多钱，要真有那么多贪官，中国早垮了。
垮不了，为什么？中国矿山、土地价值还有１００万亿，每年才偷了四千亿人民
币，想偷完，早着了。四千亿在一百万亿里面才占多少比例啊？千分之四啊。你
存了一千人民币，丢了四块人民币，你会急吗？能影响你生活吗？所以××的经
济体系有两套，人民币体系和外汇体系，而他们偷钱，看不出来，你根本不知道，
知道了也感觉不出多少影响。
１０) 中国经济拉美化还造成教育分化
×国政府的根是××主义，身子是社×主义，穿长袍马褂，它的帽子改成资
本主义。戴个礼帽，还穿着马褂呢！它讲“中国特色社×主义”，那个色，你不
能那么理解，应该是“色情”的色。你看在中国，小姐遍地。中国经济的整个发
展过程，跟拉美化的过程很接近。拉美化的特点就是贫富分化，贫富分化造成教
育分化，因为政府没钱的时候，最容易砍的就是教育经费。在美国也是，你注意
一下就可以发现，当财政赤字的时候，最先砍的是教育经费，然后是社保经费。
最容易当选的时候，也是，竞选者会说，“我们要增加教育经费，给儿童一个好
保证，然后要增加建保。”拉美国家也是，先减教育经费，而后是社保经费。越
穷的人越没说话权力，造成分化。所以有钱人一看，我要跟当官的在一块儿，要
不然，我也成穷人了，所以权、利结合。中国大陆走的就完全是这条路。
１１) 通货膨胀导致地方经济割据，与中央矛盾加大
现在中国大陆通货膨胀刚刚开始，大家可以看到，粮食等基础材料都在上涨。
人大开会时说，中国通货膨胀刚刚开始，后发力量还没有发挥出来，要大家提高
警惕。老百姓怎么提高警惕呀？政府走到这一步，它没有办法控制。我知道温家
宝想控制，可他没办法。现在地方政府和中央政府在政治上是统一的，都是××，
因为他们知道，这条船破了，大家不能凿洞，得去补，否则大家都得沈。但是经
济上是割据的，因为有利益在。地方财政不愿上交中央，尤其象福建、广东等发
达地方。他讲，我为什么要上交？上交后都补给甘肃、西藏去了，我的老百姓受
穷，经济发展不好。所以都想办法隐瞒。所以这条船上，你看很多人在补洞，但
你不能拆我的床板去补洞，我得拆他的床来补洞。
胡、温刚刚上台，需要地方支援，地方不支援，他们也做不下去。怎么办呢？
就讨价还价。大家回想一下，朱镕基时代的时候，朱镕基跑到各省去跟地方谈判，
谈国税的问题，最后形成银行体制变化。取消省行，改地区行，收国税上来。温
家宝现在收不上来。在地方税务局呢？是保地方税收，不保国税。这次中央政府
又改了，地方政府卖地，有钱了，但中央没钱，所以要学美国收地产税。两个月
前，我在圣地牙哥的加州大学分校讲，中央政府一定会这么做。结果温××很听
我话，这不，人大开会通过了，今年７月份施行。表面上看地方政府和中央政府
是一致的，其实不是，是割据的。地方政府是很反对收地产税的，因为几种税一
合并后，无形中就压低了房子、土地的价格，因为承受能力都在那里。而且地方
政府的财政越来越依靠出卖土地的收入。
我再透露个秘密，这次开人大会时，在私下开会时，他们一致反对中央收土
地税，但是温××特地跑到一个小组会上讲，这个政策是不能改变的，我们要坚
定不移要执行的。从这点上看，中央与地方政府在财政上矛盾越来越大。从表面
上看，好象中国经济挺平稳的，但实际上，中央与地方矛盾加大，要不就是，中
央向地方妥协，而不是地方向中央妥协。我的观点就是这样的。最终，沿海省市
与中央政府靠近，而内地省市和中央拉开。新疆、西藏独立就会出来，那边人会
越来越不满。因为中央财政主要依靠东部沿海城市，而西部交钱少，政策、资源
就给的少，说话的权力也没了。这不象在美国，靠选举，它这是谁给钱多谁声音
大。而另一方面，富裕发达的省份，上缴的钱多了，时间一长也会闹分裂，凭什
么我创造了财富要白给他们？穷的省份也想，我穷，还不是你们廉价地利用政策
挖我们的地下资源，凭什么我的煤和石油就白送你们用？这种情况一旦延续久了，
你们说，能不分裂吗？别说七国论，连十国都可能产生.
Redirected from http://www.tianya.cn/publicforum/Content/house/1/12474.shtml
2008年8月27日星期三
UK: Trash Culture
UK: Trash Culture
By Vexen Crabtree 2004 Nov 26
Introduction
The Elements of Trash Culture
The Intertwined Factors of Inferiority
Causes or Symptoms of Trash Culture?
A Recurring Historical Trend
Trash Culture Must be Put Back in its Place!
The UK Government's Responses to Trash Culture
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1. Introduction
Trash Culture is specifically British. It has become the mainstream culture across the United Kingdom. It is characterized by binge drinking, smoking, stupidity, the active hatred of intelligence & responsible behaviour, fashion-conscious youths, ignorant uneducated adults, misbehaviour at school, petty crime, organized crime, violence, homophobia, racism and xenophobia. Its greatest social monuments are pub culture and football, and its main facilitators are peer pressure, trashy tabloids such as The Sun and uneducated, irresponsible parenting.
The Institute for Public Policy Research reported in 2007 that British teenagers are the worst behaved in Europe15. In 2006 it reported that between British, French, German and Italian youngsters, the British are near the top of every table comparing drugs, drink, violence and promiscuity10. The Daily Mail reported we "are more likely to binge-drink, take drugs [...] and start fights". "38% confessed to trying cannabis, more than five times the rate in Sweden. British teenagers are also bigger drinkers, with 27 per cent admitting to getting drunk regularly. In Italy, the figure is five per cent and in France it is just three per cent."15. Uri Geller, an Israeli celebrity psychic, people-watcher and occasional social commentator, complains about "our drinking culture which has gone beyond normal, social behaviour. Walk about any city on a Friday night and you will see young people boozed up and behaving terribly."1. "Townies", and drunken ones at that, make most city centres and the areas around popular pubs unfriendly and noisy places across all of Britain, every Friday night.
An important element of trash culture is its self-propagation. The individual elements of it encourage the others. If you smoke whilst young, you are more likely to drink too. It is a downwards cycle; drinking mothers reduce their average IQ of their children, and the less intelligent are more likely to drink more. Even the overindulgence in fast food can cause pregnant mothers' children to be born addicted to junk food2. On this page I draw on academic research showing how these things are related. Sociologists would give the name of secondary reference group to the position of trash culture in the UK. This means that the general background culture is a culture of short-term thrill-seeking & youthful ignorance, and this is the cultural reference under which all subcultures exist in the UK. A primary reference group is normally an individual's immediate family. Academic circles, intelligent subcultures, highly skilled classes, etc, have all become effective subcultures to trash culture. In the history of the British Empire it was the educated, ignorant-but-educated masses that was the mainstream culture. Sometime since the late 1940s, trash culture rose to prominence and displaced aristocratic idealism as the central mass. This decade has seen heavy government intervention cause slow reverses in some of these trends, but the cycle of trash culture remains. To break it, each individual element must be resisted and greater levels of general education must be reached.
2. The Elements of Trash Culture
Binge Drinking & Pub Culture
“As a result of the dominance of trash culture, the UK has the most developed pub culture of all modern countries. Socializing does not occur in restaurants or at milliard social occasions, as it does now in most developed countries, but in pubs. Pub culture is based around drinking relatively strong beer in a (once) smoky, noisy environment that is devoid of any intelligent conversation. It serves as the place where social groups all default to meet in, where businessmen network, where all go to relax. In trash culture the home is not a primary place to entertain friends: the pub is. Home cooking in the UK has quartered, fast food, eating-out and take-away consumption have experienced long-term booms. Once a proud nation of kitchen-socializers, our fitness and health is plummeting to the same fast-food standards of the USA. Pubs are centers of youth violence, shrines to football and sport and most pubs show frequent football games on a variety of large and small screens. Alcohol over-use has become institutionalized, and not just in labour industries. Professional meetings are frequently held in restaurants and pubs and involve after-discussion binge-drinking. Feminist groups have complained that this pub & alcohol 'circle' around work meeting discriminates against women (who drink less).
Per-capita consumption of alcohol in the UK has doubled since the late 1950s, whilst in other developed countries such as France and Italy, it has more than halved. The cost of alcohol, in real terms, is half what it was in the 1970s. Between 1995 and 2001, binge drinking increased by 35% in the UK. Despite government efforts to reduce excessive drinking, according to the NHS "hundreds more" children are admitted to hospital after drinking [in 2005] than five years ago, diagnosed with alcohol poisoning and "behavioural disorders because of excessive drinking". Death rates from cirrhosis, primarily caused by excessive drinking, "the increase is reflected in rising death rates from chronic liver disease, the primary cause of which is too much drink. In the 30 years between 1970 and 2000, death by cirrhosis for people aged 25 to 44 rose an astonishing 900%, from about 80 cases a year to more than 700". [...]
UK holidaymakers and football fans abroad are bemoaned as the most drunken and most unruly of all foreign travellers. It disgraces the UK; we have seen above that other European countries such as Italy and France have no such problems.”
"Alcohol: Health, Violence and Culture" by Vexen Crabtree (2006)
No other country has a culture of such waste & decadence. Nearly all other cultures have had centres of socialization with at least some merit; but the pub serves no developmental function. It is intrinsically tied with low quality conversation, poor human relations and poor hygiene.
The social knock-on effects of such heavy drinking patterns is huge. We have discussed above the long-term effects of heavy alcohol use on the mind and body, and also the alcohol-related crime and accidents. Together, this makes alcohol by far the biggest social problem that British society faces. Alcohol, irresponsible behaviour, crime and all the other factors of trash culture are all inter-related.
Sociologists sometimes classify households according to the wages of the principal income earner of the house; "lower social groups tend to smoke more, drink more, take less leisure, fewer holidays and participate less in voluntary work"3. There is an association between poverty and drinking, but also between drinking and smoking, and between drinking and all the other aspects of trash culture, as we shall see.
“Drunken louts, beer bellies, reduced judgement, social misbehaviour, drunken anger: the cost of alcohol and violence are all unacceptable side affects of drinking too much. The Metropolitan Police report that most street crime is alcohol-related, and that Friday night drunken behaviour requires massive increase in police shifts. Also, illness, hangovers, reduced bodily health to fight disease, to repair itself, to be strong, are all unacceptable to anyone with a sense of social responsibility.”
"Substance abuse: Alcohol, drugs and cigarettes" by Vexen Crabtree (2003)
Smoking
England has one of the highest smoking rates in Europe. Eire banned smoking in all public places and the first commercial culprit was hit hardest: Pubs. Recent Labour government curbs on smoking, including advertising bans, compulsory health warnings, stricter controls on the minimum age for purchasing nicotine products have all reduced smoking levels, but it is still a major problem and further measures are constantly being considered. Trash culture is short-sighted and compulsive; it is unable to control itself and does not want to. Peer pressure has reduced sensible behaviour to the point where the government has needed to step in; such is the all-pervading nuisance of mass stupidity. Much of the following is duplicated on:
"Smoking: Society, Health and the Freedom of Choice" by Vexen Crabtree (2007)
Smoking costs Britain - there is no benefit of smoking. Smokers lack self-control and are selfish, draining the country of resources and health because of their own inability to consider the effects of smoking socially or personally. They are inconsiderate towards those who care about themselves who of course do not want to see their health suffer.
“The Health Education Authority refers to the current situation as 'the smoking epidemic' and estimates that smoking is responsible for approximately 110 000 deaths a year. This amounts to roughly 17 per cent of all deaths. Some 285 000 people are admitted to hospital because of smoking and on average occupy 9500 hospital beds. The total cost of smoking to the National Health Service is £437 million.”
"Britain's Population" by Steven Jackson (1998), p93
While Jackson (1998) states above that there are approximately 110 000 deaths a year from smoking, the Secretary of State for Health (1998) states a slightly worse 120 0009. It is evident that the social conditions that lead to this kind of short-term, short-sighted attitude to health is demographically linked to the under-educated, less-intelligent portions of the population.
“Patterns of smoking vary significantly between different social groups. Approximately 15 per cent of professionals smoke in comparison to over 40 per cent of unskilled manual workers.”
"Britain's Population" by Steven Jackson (1998), p94
Smoking is intertwined deeply with trash culture. It is more common amongst unskilled and manual workers, prevails among "less educated" individuals14, and is associated with poverty. If you smoke, you are more likely to drink. If you smoke or drink, you are also more likely to do drugs. This is the result of the 1999 publication from the Office for National Statistics entitled "Smoking, drinking and drug use among young teenagers in 1998". A key factor of trash culture is that it is self-promoting. Once trash habits become accepted, they spread themselves. This entire culture is itself a harmful disease.
Amongst young teenagers, "the likelihood of having ever used drugs is strongly related to smoking experience: 63% of regular smokers had used drugs, compared with only 1% of those who had never smoked". With drinking the statistics are also similar and cyclic: 44% of young teenagers who drink also get involved in drugs, compared with only 1% of children who don't drink. And importantly, in case it is doubted that all these factors propagate one another, "virtually no children who had never smoked or drunk had ever used drugs".
The key for parents and teenagers is to delay drinking and smoking until children are older. This usually means giving up themselves, especially in front of their children.
So far we have seen that smoking, drinking and immature drug use have all gone hand in hand. The evidence is social, but there is also direct biological links between smoking and trash culture that transcend social factors, as reported in the British Medical Journal (2005)4:
If a mother smokes 20 or more cigarettes a day during late pregnancy, their child will have reduced IQ by an average of 6.2 points.
Smoking's "adverse effect on the central nervous system and brain may be a factor" which "may explain why smoking during pregnancy has also been linked to behavioural problems and increased risk of criminality in offspring"
This direct link is part of the self-propagation of the irresponsible and short-sighted aspects of trash culture. What is more is that the effect of smoking takes place across all income classes. It effects the children of professionals as much as the children of the unemployed: Money cannot make up for the loss accrued from smoke (and passive smoking) during pregnancy.
Stupidity
In youthful trash culture, intelligence is attacked. In pubs, intelligent conversation is frowned upon, scorned, laughed at and sought for as a target for ridicule. That mainstream culture rejects better people is not new, but the depths to which this has permeated British culture is the principal dangerous aspect of trash culture. Mature relationships, long-term planning, health, fitness, responsible living and all other personal endeavours are scoffed at. It is a mass reaction against anything elitist, so much so that intelligent culture has abandoned large swathes of the country, retreating into sidelined subcultures. The youthful short-term wish-fulfillment of trash culture has become the accepted norm.
Jeremy Paxman (p191-193) charts the modern British rejection of intelligence. Intellectuals, once respected, now hide. Across British lands we distrust, ridicule and dislike them. It is an odd and disappointing loss, in a country responsible for the foundation of so much of Western academia! The only consolation is that we are still endowed with common sense; the ordinary Brit is resourceful even whilst ignorant.
List pages related to Stupidity by Vexen
As a result of the lack of understanding of issues and facts, the populace hold "ideals", meaning thinking, to be useless. Debate of ideas is frowned upon, distrusted and disliked. The rejection of intellectual methods of debate, argument and active learning are all rejected; instead it has become taboo to question peoples' opinions and beliefs on issues. Frank Furedi writes insightfully that "a strong argument has been redefined as a form of mental intimidation", I quote him in full below. This modern trend is also eating away at the superiority of British Universities, the once bastions of worldly knowledge and wisdom!
“British universities encourage academics to ban an 'adversarial' style of debate from the seminar rooms and provide a 'supportive environment' for students. A strong argument has been redefined as a form of mental intimidation. Such attitudes are even more in evidence on American campuses. 'Debate has gotten a very bad name in our culture', notes Jeff Nunokawa, a professor of English at Princeton University. '[I]t's become synonymous with some of the most non-intellectual forms of bullying, rather than as an opportunity for deliberative democracy.'
Given the extent to which the authority of knowledge has been devalued, the negative connotations acquired by conflict of opinion and heated debate are entirely understandable. With so little at stake, what's the point of arguing? If ideas have such little consequence, insistence of one's point of view appears as pig-headedness and bad manners. Criticizing someone else's ideas is readily interpreted as ego-tripping or as an act of insensitivity, while the very act of questioning someone's view can appear as a personal insult. 'It's as though there's no distinction between the person and the argument, as though to criticize an argument would be injurious to the person', observes Amanda Anderson, an English professor at Johns Hopkins University.”
"Where Have All the Intellectuals Gone?" by Frank Furedi (2004) p75
It is not only the University academia that has become loathed, but also the authority of scientific knowledge. Hughes and Fergusson, two sociologists with the Open University, write that although the notion of an authority figure of knowledge & intellect was respected and trusted, nowadays their wisdom is not appreciated by UK society [Hughes & Fergusson, p20-21]. They say in the UK that "we have become progressively disenchanted with those who claim to be grand 'experts', especially those that rely upon the authority of science to back up their claims". The anti-intellect and anti-responsibility auras of popular culture both combine to form a particularly ignorant form of science-blindness amongst masses of the population.
More humorously, in the light hearted "How to be an Alien" George Mikes says that "in England it is bad manners to be clever, to assert something confidently. It may be your own personal view that two and two make four, but you must not state it in a self-assured way, because this is a democratic country and others may be of a different opinion" [Mikes (1970) p36]
Fashion Slavery
British youths in particular (not so much older people) are very fashion-conscious. As in history, cliques are largely identified by fashion. The worrying thing in trash culture is that others are actively hated for dressing differently. Whereas in other cultures differences are accepted as part of the natural order of society, in trash culture only the "trashy" styles of dress are seen as "normal". Toleration extends to business suits only through pragmatism, but stops short of anything else. So, those who wear foreign dress, religious dress, the alternative dress of subcultures, etc, are all actively sought out as victims. This problem persists as much in rural areas as it does in rural ones. Although not unique to trash culture, this style of shallow intolerance is notable for its deeper ignorance than is usual. Thankfully, this particular aspect does seem to reduce with age, so that it is worse with the youths.
"Notes on Fashion" by Vexen Crabtree (2002)
Ignorant Adult Population
Three generations of trash culture have existed since its rise to prominence after World War 2, and many of its anti-intellectual youths institutionalized the culture. It is now the only known culture for most of Britain. Uneducated adults of the first wave have produced an entrenched system of family-based and local systems of ignorance. Adults with racist, stupid, ignorant and short-sighted emotional goals pass on all their mistakes to their children. It has become self-sustaining, so that the children in such families are not pressurized into becoming more developed, intelligent adults. In fact that type of future is actively discouraged. Only the most unique children break free; as such trash culture has become the default from which escape is necessary: it is no longer a potential trap to fall into, but a central culture to be actively fought out of. It is socially institutionalized. Since the 1960s there have been no more English gentlemen. [Paxman (Ch.: Ideal Englishman)]. Once we were the elite of Europe... now we're ignorant enough to reject and hate Europe; causing it to hate us, against its nature, in return.
Misbehaviour at School
Something has gone wrong with the British educational system, and it is probably trash culture itself that has caused the problems. Children are coming into the schooling system completely undisciplined, uneducated and unsocialized. Teachers are having to double-up as crowd-control agents and triple-up as moral teachers, with a healthy dose of self defence training proving itself useful too.
The peer pressure to conform to the negatives of trash culture is powerful; the combination of thrill-seeking, lazy thinking and irresponsibility combine with social pressure to form an almost irresistible force. For example children are given by their parents, "crisps and chocolate for school breaks to prevent peer ridicule", according to a study in the Midlands [ONS, 1997]. Ill health, obesity and lack of exercise are three things that also dim intellectual health. A physically fit body has biochemical advantages for the brain. But, the irresponsibility and stupidity of trash culture effect parents, so that the entire lifestyle of their children is permitted to go down the drain.
Petty Crime & Organized Crime
Crime has risen, I believe, without the influence of trash culture. The decline of several major industries in the UK and the dismantling of the Empire left a country with fundamental holes in its social fabric. This, as much as the trash culture that rose to fill the space, caused the occurrence of petty crime at the same levels as seen in other modern industrial countries. Traditionally a more dutiful country of obedient citizens, the British lost their code of honour. Petty crime, robbery, street crime and the likes are a part of all major cities, but it seems it is made doubly worse by the pervading drunken, short-sighted trash culture. A culture of anti-police and anti-authoritarianism exists where criminals are all but encouraged. Small-time benefit fraud has become a norm in all poverty-stricken families as the short-term, muddled minds of the mainstream populace fail to see the long-term consequences of social misbehaviour. Selfishness and irresponsible behaviour extends to both the criminal and innocent sides of pub culture.
Violence
The British public are infamous for their violent behaviour, but it is only really the central trash culture that acts it out. The pub-centered socializing breeds violence and destructive aggression. Nearly all outbursts of family violence occur in houses where the pub is the principal port of call; and most domestic incidents are reported to occur whilst the aggressor is under the influence of drink. Violent crime is not notably bad in the UK, but it is part-and-parcel of the unwise, thrill-seeking masses.
Xenophobia
The UK needs more immigrants.
Vexen Crabtree (2007)
Even the individual lower-class citizens of other countries enjoy the benefits of multiculture. All European countries accept and tolerate other cultures and lifestyles. The UK is the notable exception in Europe. Despite being a very mixed country, London is the most diverse city on Earth, the central trash culture is very intolerant of foreign things. The saving grace is that the masses are so stupid they frequently accept things without knowing they're foreign. "Different" styles of dress, different customs, religions, looks and people are misunderstood, cruelly stereotyped and largely rejected. The UK does not suffer too badly from homophobia, especially since the demise of the Christian Churches, but there is still a relatively widespread dislike of gays within much of Britain. Not just within trash culture, although it is of course the worst example. Racism is strife, much more so than the government would like to admit. Focal points of expressions of xenophobia are pubs and football matches, the two greatest social meeting points for the trash cultures' masses.
“Opinion polls consistently show that Britons are concerned about immigration, which they think is running out of control. [...] Television images of Afghans pouring into the Channel Tunnel particularly offended the island mentality. For the last three years, fewer would-be refugees have made it to Britain, thanks to better border security [...]. The number of asylum-seekers is now the lowest it has been for more than a decade. Oddly, though, public disquiet is as strong as ever”
The Economist (2006)5
Due to the ageing populations of many Western countries, immigration has become essential for national workforces:
“The UK is ageing, and we need more working-age people to fill the emptying hole in our demographic make-up. Otherwise, multiple industries and all pensions are at severe risk. Already, some industries and local economies depend on immigrants, especially as cheap labour to do work that not many others want to do but also we have serious shortages in some skilled trades, for example, nearly half the new doctors and nurses employed in the National Health Service have qualified abroad. We already have shortages of medical staff. Imagine the world without half the staff of the NHS, cheap labourers working in industries that our ageing population avoids, no pensions for increasing numbers of the elderly, and you imagine a UK without immigration. The Government reports that immigrants in total pay more in taxes than they take as benefits6. Countries in the EU - Britain, Sweden and Eire, that have opened their borders fully to EU's new members such as Poland, Bulgaria and Romania, have benefited from it more than others. Despite this, some extremist, simpleton and short-sighted parties (such as the BNP and NF) campaign for a complete stop to immigration, and even promise to send home nationalized foreigners. With a population that is ageing, they will soon find that they have rather a lot of pensioners and not many workers.”
"Immigration: Economics and Bigotry" by Vexen Crabtree (2007)
Countries such as Denmark, Finland and Sweden all accept a higher rate of asylum seekers than the UK (Vexen on Asylum Seeker Acceptance Rates, 2004) and yet these countries do not have the problems that many in the UK complain about. Denmark's rate of 74% makes our 43% look positively timid.
Mass Media
There is a massive market for mass media products aimed at the low-attention-span trash culture types. Male-dominated trashy tabloids depict female nudes, fictional short stories of the most banal and stupid kind, advice columns designed to shock rather than educate, and news stories that are widely known to be entertaining rather than true. The Sun, The Star, The Daily Sport, for example, are three of most popular "news" papers, and almost entirely devoted to the decadent content just mentioned. Television has become the resident priest of Trash, nearly all programs cater for people with short-attention spans. Adverts are quick and shocking, programs are simplistic and moronic. Although more educated content exists it is unpopular. Thankfully the government takes a strong hand in monitoring domestic channels for content and worth, otherwise I suspect local TV would be almost entirely lost to stupidity & contentless trashy entertainment.
British soap operas are famously violent, angry, shocking, melancholic tragedies depicting casts of characters that are all stupid, short-sighted, emotionally challenged failures who seem allergic to honest, good relationships and intellectual pursuits. The masses are taught every way to fail a relationship and shown none of the compassions or developed attitudes expected of responsible relations. Petty crime, short-tempers and stupidity on the TV soaps reflect perfectly the mentality of trash culture, the self-perpetuating cause-and-affect cycle of this coupling is hard to break without serious top-down change.
"Modern Mass Media, Stupidity and Trash Culture" by Vexen Crabtree (1998)
I had the opportunity to discuss trash culture with a Captain in the British Army, and she informed me of her own pet term for the movement, calling it "trisha culture" after a popular dramatic chat show.
Football
Football has become an institutionalized sport in England. Major matches are almost national holidays, with nearly all employees and their bosses finding ways to, almost religiously, watch the game live. It is the trademark of English yob culture. Our fans are the most violent, least respectful, most disruptive and worst behaved in the world. It seems that it attracts the worst types of people, frequently sending them abroad en masse, crowding them together in the worst possible ways. But worse of all the culture around football doesn't only attract these personality types, it seems to develop them. It has become a self-indulgent sport of national moral decadence; around football you will find the worst violence, hatred, racism, xenophobia and homophobia. The most ignorant people will be commended in their stupidity, the entire culture of football is the tallest tower that trash culture can manufacture. The attitudes surrounding football have become an ugly monstrosity that overshadows what would otherwise be a sport concentrated on tremendous skill. But English trash culture, stupid, irresponsible, uncaring and violence, has made this sport its mascot and its primary recruiting ground. English youths are pressurized into football culture by peer pressure as much as they are sucked into trash culture; the two are both symptoms and causes of an inherently dysfunctional central-mass of the English populace.
Major international distrust of the UK, and our culture, comes from our pitiful public displays during football matches, especially abroad.
Jeremy Paxman is only stating obvious and well-known cases when he spends multiple pages listing the atrocious activities of British hooligans abroad and at home, fighting with visiting fans. "The English Problem is the hooligan problem". [Paxman, p244] Amongst the "horrifying" things Paxman mentions... in the Summer of 1985 May, "when a major disturbance between Liverpool and Juventus fans left nearly forty Italians dead on the pitch". Drunken English youths throw chairs, stones and anything, at anyone, especially at opposing fans, shops and police. No other country has fans that act in the same league as ours. Other fans, even Scottish fans inside the borders of Britain, behave well "capable of drinking vast amounts and merely sleeping off the after-effects".
Our good-natured fans do little or nothing to restrict the bad ones; football culture is beyond repair, an international bother, an embarrassment, and no-one has the societal know-how to do anything about it. Clearly the "scum of the Earth" lowest-of-the-low recruits that were once indulged to join the Army have now found a new societal outlet: Football, under the protection of trash culture, is Britain's belated Hitler Youth movement.
“In Turin in the late 1980s, the writer Bill Buford watched with horror as a group of bloated Manchester United football fans staggered off the aircraft that had brought them from England [...]. The fans colonized the town center, sitting in their tattoos in sidewalk cafes singing "Fuck the Pope" over and over again, occasionally getting up to piss in the street. And that was when they were being well behaved, and not attacking the 'fuckin' eyeties' with sticks, knives or bottles. [...] Certainly, you don't expect to find plane-loads of Italians pouring into the centre of London and behaving in a similar fashion. [...] In Sardinia for the 1990 World Cup, Bill Buford watched as a mass of English football hooligans fought a pitched battle with the Italian police. [...]
The problem is not exclusively English - Dutch and German fans have developed their own versions of the sickness in which puffy-faced young thugs proclaim their loyalty by kicking or stoning anyone who speaks a different language or wears different colours. But the truth is that the English gave the world soccor. They also gave it hooliganism.”
"The English" by Jeremy Paxman (1998), p245-246
Less serious than that is simple football mania. Charlotte Church, singer, said "I just can't stand the UK's obsession with football. It's on the telly all the time. Saying that, I'd be the first to admit David Beckham really is very gorgeous. But men who talk football, football and nothing else - no thanks! They're such a bore."1 The television, largely catering for trash culture types, but especially pubs that show all football matches, have created classes of people who drink, eat, talk and sleep football. It forms a barrier against friendly social contact with non-fans in the same way you can't really talk to a raving fundamentalist Christian about anything else other than his own strong opinions. Socially, it causes alienation of the British public that so many of us are football mad, especially when the very same people are frequently the ones to deride USA patriotism... they don't see their own fandom as the same thing, the same personality trait that sweeps up fans into aggressive fanhood also whips many Americans into fervent and unreasonable patriotism. Football is the UK's answer to patriotism, the only problem is that those involved don't admit it is the same thing as the USA's.
3. The Intertwined Factors of Inferiority
We have seen that smoking, drinking, drugs, low intelligence and other symptoms of trash culture are not only prevalent amongst the same groups of people, but that they all act as factors in each other's propagation. This is what the sociologists Boreham & Blenkinsop published as a result of their survey of 10000 secondary school children (aged 11-15, in school years 7 to 11) carried out on behalf of the Department of Health by the National Center for Social Research and the National Foundation for Educational Research. The use of multiple substances; cigarettes, alochol, cannabis, volatile substances and class A drugs, were all found to be individually related to each other (ch. 9). Peer-pressure plays an undisputed role. Of pupils who had taken drugs in the past year (30% of all children), only 8% said none of their friends did. In other words, amongst users, 92% had friends who had also used.
“All correlations were statistically significant and positive, thus pupils who had recently taken one of these substances were more likely than pupils who had not to have taken each of the other substances. [...] Pupils who had ever played truant were considerably more likely than those who had not to have taken drugs in the last month (38% compared with 7%), to be a regular smoker (33% compared with 4%) and to have drunk alcohol in the last week (52% compared with 19%). Similar patterns were found for pupils who had ever been excluded.”
"Drug use, smoking & drinking among young people in England in 2003"
Boreham & Blenkinsop (2004), p15
4. Causes or Symptoms of Trash Culture?
All the elements above are causes and effects of trash culture. To definitively sort out the causes from the symptoms of cultural change is impossible. One cause/symptom is the simple fact that the length of TV adverts and popular music has reduced. Adverts are shorter, pop music tracks are shorter, public entertainment is briefer. In addition, thrills are quicker, cheaper and simpler. Do all these things shrink because our attention span is decreasing, or, does the production of cheaper, quicker thrills cause attention spans to decrease? Intelligent music; classical, intelligent "upper-class" entertainment such as theatre, intelligent movies (not mindless ones), radio, all require greater patience and calm intellect to be enjoyed. It is very hard to point to which elements of pop culture are causing trash culture elements and which are causes of it.
Does a decreasing sophistication of the arts and public entertainment cause the short-attention-span mentality, or is it simply that those with short attention spans or low intellect are now given an entertainment that suits them and keeps them occupied? Is it that there has always been a trash culture at the center of every social empire, and now in the West we have simply given them centre stage? Or is it that the pandering to our stupid sides (commercialism and crowd control) creates more stupid behaviour, in a self-perpetuating cycle?
The answer must be both: There is always a mass of people that are stupid, inferior, who are suited to trash entertainment. There is also a superior element in society who are simply bored by the stupid entertainment offered to these people. There may also be a central intermediate mass who can be swayed either way. This is the classical case in all groupings of people; the same Venn split occurs everywhere. That there is a central mass tells me one thing: That trash culture should be oppressed, suppressed and controlled more rigidly in order to bring enlightenment and improvement to this central mass, and maybe even to phase out and gradually decrease as much of the hardcore trash-culture victims as possible.
5. A Recurring Historical Trend
By other names, trash cultures have existed as part of all major empires and nations. At the heart of the Roman Empire was a decadent culture of thrills, where a growing cancerous trash culture flourished. Once the Empire was rich and powerful enough a mass of people could get by without skills, work, education or intelligence. Without the quality control of constant strife, the Roman Empire didn't have the infrastructure to prevent inner rot from melting away previous superiority of organisation, intelligence, strength, etc. This was not a corruption of power, but simply a loss of vitality that was not controlled. It needed to be controlled centrally by government, but the government itself came subject to the decay. As the Roman Empire died, the masses converted to intolerance and ignorance more than ever before. The same core of moronic masses exist everywhere. It is human nature.
6. Trash Culture Must be Put Back in its Place!
In the past of the British Empire, mainstream society comprised of the educated classes who could afford education, the many who were intelligent but had access to no education, and the stupid masses. When people today reminisce about a past where education was much better, they are missing the fact that there has always been a terrible, seething mass of stupid and uneducatable untermensch. It is merely that now, this is what we now call trash culture, and it has risen to claim the central spotlight whereas previously due to an enforced inferiority complex, the entire mass of people was ignored. Nowadays the history books include these people, but historically they've been ignored. The upper-class represented the country and controlled the media. Now, trash culture has taken that control. The non-trash, academic cultures and great people, have now all lost the ability to claim their superiority. It has become taboo to be "better" than other people!
This taboo and humble disability has let trash culture take over mass entertainment. A subculture that deems delinquency acceptable contributes to youth conduct disorder13. The government in a democracy bows to public pressure, it rules in ways that public do not understand and takes into account factors that the public are too stupid to consider. In short, the government rules by stealth. People vote on the most simple, stupid, irrelevant things, and in short the government runs one campaign for the masses, and one for the intelligent. It is the campaign for the masses that brings most votes. It is no longer respectable for the government to claim, as it could do, that its members are better educated than most and actually do know what is best, unlike the mass population who have little appreciation of the concerns a modern government faces! As it has become disrespectable to point out that "I'm cleverer than you", modern democratic governments have made themselves incapable of dealing with trash culture in an honest way.
“If the masses are stupid, democracy doesn't work. The government has to rule by stealth, tricking the people through things that merely sound good but in intelligent society promoting and doing things that are good, or democracy shoots itself in its foot and causes the downfall of the nation into an anarchic mess. Shallow policies do not make for good government, but, most stupid people vote on shallow issues. The solution is to trick the stupid people into voting for you or to educate them. A good-intentioned deception is nearly always much easier and will never be dispensed with, the only alternative is to restrict voting for uneducated people. This is the dilemma of modern Western democracy!”
"Stupidity Versus Democracy" by Vexen Crabtree
The Institute for Public Policy Research report 2007 warns that "British adults are becoming afraid of trying to curb out-of-control youngsters. We are less likely than our European counterparts to confront teenagers about antisocial behaviour and vandalism."15. What is needed is a strong movement of anti-stupidity preachers and teachers, philosophers and writers, all to encourage the active recognition and condemnation of trash culture for what it is. Pupils in schools should be taught how to think critically and not to follow others mindlessly. Independent minded youths are less influenced by peers to take substances16. But this campaign must be done without invoking images of class warfare (which it is definitely not - the upper class have a fair share of drunken idiots too). Increased intelligence and education are what make democracy worthwhile. If the population in stupid, democracy shoots itself in the foot as government becomes disabled as people vote on shallow issues, not important ones. As people do not understand politics or worldwide issues, science or sociology, so the "concerns" of the vote become worryingly vapid. This can only be countered by active campaigns making it, once again, a matter of public pride to be intelligent. This, in short, means destroying the social acceptance that trash culture has gained.
7. The UK Government's Responses to Trash Culture
Britain now (2006) has some of the toughest anti-social behaviour laws in Europe.
“Since coming to power in 1997, the Labour government has forged more than a dozen legal weapons to combat the petty incivilities that are thought to corrode society. They range from on-the-spot fines to "dispersal orders", which can be used to expel people from designated areas, to ASBOs.”
The Economist (2006)6
These are described simultaneously as "unusually tough powers" for a government to be allowed to pass, and part of the reason is that the anti-social 'hard line' is popular. Many people, even whilst participating in it, profess a belief that trash culture is bad for society, disturbs the peaceful life, and should be curbed by the government. As a result, as trash culture has become more assertive; spilling into the streets of adulthood rather than being confined to rebellious youths of the 1970s, there is a constant feeling that something has to be done. As a street-level government, Labour is in touch with this movement and does indeed proceed to battle with trash culture. It has done pleasingly well; the Labour government has reversed the smoking trend, partially turning smokers into outcasts with all kinds of anti-public-smoking laws and regulations, and has run campaigns against obesity, even taking this campaign to the constitution of school meals. The Guardian, a top UK newspaper, reported that in 2006 that the "tide of binge drinking that threatened to engulf Britain has started to recede" amongst men and women over the last two years11.
Britain's level of education was once a proud symbol of civility; but after a century of stagnation, most of Europe (and the rest of the developed world) have greater levels and length of education. Although the rate of improvement would make a tortoise look like an olympic sprinter, things are set to change, and the age at which people must be in education or training, is being increased from 16 to 18.
“The measure, announced in the Queen's speech on November 6th, reflects a determination to bring Britain into line with the rest of the developed world. [...] The plight of the so-called "NEETS" - young people not in education, employment or training - is another powerful reason to reform things. At any one time about 10% of those between 16 and 18 fall into this category. The 1% who stay in it for the whole two years are likely to end up among the long-term unemployed.
So from 2013 all 16-year-olds will have to spend at least 16 hours a week in education or work-based training. The only alternative will be working at least 20 hours and training in the classroom for just a day a week. These rules will be extended to 17-year olds in 2015.”
The Economist (2007)17
The government, and sociologists, are hopeful that public education and improved social policy can continue to reduce the harmful effects of trash culture, but the clash between sense and mindless hedonism is apparently an eternal one.
Read / Write Comments List other pages on the UK
By Vexen Crabtree 2004 Nov 26
Relevant pages by Vexen:
Self Development: Pages on improving yourself
Bloody Mundanes: Some bad examples of trash culture behaviour towards alternative subcultures
List pages related to Stupidity by Vexen
References:
Boreham, Richard & Blenkinsop, Sarah (Eds.). "Drug use, smoking & drinking among young people in England in 2003" (2004). A survey of 10000 secondary school children (aged 11-15, in school years 7 to 11) carried out on behalf of the Department of Health by the National Center for Social Research and the National Foundation for Educational Research. Published by The Stationary.
Crabtree, Vexen. "Modern Mass Media, Stupidity and Trash Culture" (1998). Accessed 2008 Apr 09.
"Chemical Support" (2003). Accessed 2008 Apr 09.
"Alcohol: The Social & Medical Effects and How to Combat Misuse" (2006). Accessed 2008 Apr 09.
Davison & Neale. "Abnormal Psychology" (1997 Hardback 7th ed). Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Amazon link points to a newer edition than the one I've used here.
Furedi, Frank. "Where Have All the Intellectuals Gone?" (2004). Quotes from original hardback edition. Frank Furedi is professor of sociology at the University of Kent.
Hughes, Gordon & Fergusson, Ross (Eds.). "Ordering Lives: Family, work and welfare" (2004 2nd ed). Published by Routledge. Originally written and published by The Open University, 2000, UK.
Jackson, Stephen. "Britain's Population: Demographic Issues in Contemporary Society" (1998). Published by Routledge.
Mikes, George. "How to be an Alien" (1970). Penguin Books.
Office for National Statistics "Smoking, drinking and drug use among young teenagers in 1998". (1999). Published by the Office for National Statistics, London, UK.
"The Health of Adult Britain, 1841-1994" (1997 Volume 1). Edited by John Charlton and Mike Murphy. Published by The Stationary Office, London, UK.
Paxman, Jeremy. "The English" (1998). Quotes from 1999 Penguin Books edition.
Secretary of State for Health. "Our Healthier Nation: A Contract for Health" (1998 Feb). Government consultation paper presented to Parliament (CM3852).
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PS: Nice article about England!
2008年7月22日星期二
Sometimes it's disgusting in Europe
I don't know why so many European really love being "home animals", staying in the house comfortable and enjoying the "healthy" cafe every morning, esp those old guys who are the most strongest supporters of the improvement of social welfare system, never dare to challenge themselves to make a tough decision to go into work again. Comparing with the hardworking Asian people, esp Japanese, they're just lazy pigs. Besides, they are pretty fond of being silent at home not going outside for activities, e.g, like my neighborhoods, with whom I've been living almost 2 years, are never catching my eyes clearly, it's dammit hard to see them in 12 months, this scene reminds me frequently of the PS game---Resident Evil, everybody is infected like ghost. Without any close communications near my house, I've to write something to pass the free time.
I really hate staying in Europe for long. The food is like shit! I am wondering what the hell is so-called high quality of living in Europe? I really can't get it. If you are eating shit everyday, even you got a million valued modern house, you're still poor. You might invite the best cooker for you, but you can't guarantee that your next generation will have money to invite cooker again, what you really need is to learn it and teach it generation by generation until it becomes a kind of culture in the whole society. After all, they're born too lazy to get used themselves to it, because their ancestors who did not only invent great modern industry technologies but also robed mass of wealth in other countries, have created durable and solid foundation for them.
I really hate staying in Europe for long. The food is like shit! I am wondering what the hell is so-called high quality of living in Europe? I really can't get it. If you are eating shit everyday, even you got a million valued modern house, you're still poor. You might invite the best cooker for you, but you can't guarantee that your next generation will have money to invite cooker again, what you really need is to learn it and teach it generation by generation until it becomes a kind of culture in the whole society. After all, they're born too lazy to get used themselves to it, because their ancestors who did not only invent great modern industry technologies but also robed mass of wealth in other countries, have created durable and solid foundation for them.
- The European are well civilized in the aspect of industrialization in the last 3 centuries, but not all, like the culture of cuisine. we can say, you can improve your skill or tech in a very short time, but it's totally and totally impossible form a good habit or even social culture! (Except Italy)
- The latest research(See "Changing Your Lifestyle Can Change Your Genes" from Newsweek) has showed that improvement of diet and living style can actually change your gene. So if you are fucking born sick, you can enhance your body by improving your diet habit in 2 or 3 decades.
- They have the developed legal system but it doesn't mean everybody can charge, actually the most of normal guys never dare to do this, because they know the whole society is controlled by just 1% of people, so they're dealing with and getting used to the fucking facts: They can get money from the government for living , but hardly get the opportunity to promote themselves through personal innovation and creativity, while everyone knows that, you got to catch the part of your welfare before you're dumped when you're trying to do something special.
2008年6月20日星期五
Changing Your Lifestyle Can Change Your Genes
New research shows that improved diet, meditation and other non-medical interventions can actually "turn off" the disease-promoting process in men with prostate cancer.
Dean Ornish M.D.Newsweek Web ExclusiveUpdated: 6:32 PM ET Jun 17, 2008
Here's some very good news: your genes are not your destiny. Earlier this week, my colleagues and I published the first study showing that improved nutrition, stress management techniques, walking, and psychosocial support actually changed the expression of over 500 genes in men with early-stage prostate cancer. This study was conducted at the non-profit Preventive Medicine Research Institute and the University of California, San Francisco in collaboration with Dr. Peter Carroll, Dr. Mark Magbanua, Dr. Chris Haqq, and others.
In this study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, we studied gene expression in biopsies from 30 men who were diagnosed with low-risk prostate cancer. These men had decided not to undergo conventional treatments such as surgery, radiation, or chemotherapy for reasons unrelated to the study. They had early, small-volume prostate cancer with stable prostate specific antigen (PSA) levels and Gleason scores of six or less, meaning that their tumors were not aggressive.
We biopsied their prostates at the beginning of the study and again three months later, after making comprehensive lifestyle changes. Since these patients did not have conventional treatments during this time, it enabled us to assess the effects of the lifestyle changes on gene expression without confounding interventions such as surgery, radiation, or chemotherapy.
The changes included a plant-based diet (predominant fruits, vegetables, legumes, soy products, and whole grains low in refined carbohydrates), moderate exercise (walking 30 minutes per day), stress management techniques (yoga-based stretching, breathing techniques, meditation, and guided imagery for one hour per day), and participating in a weekly one-hour support group. The diet was supplemented with soy, fish oil (three grams/day), vitamin E (100 units/day), selenium (200 mg/day), and vitamin C (2 grams/day). These lifestyle changes are described more fully in my book, The Spectrum.
After three months, we repeated the biopsy and looked at changes in normal tissue within the prostate. We found that many disease-promoting genes (including those associated with cancer, heart disease, and inflammation) were down-regulated or "turned off," whereas protective, disease-preventing genes were up-regulated or "turned on." For example, a set of cancer-promoting oncogenes called RAS was down-regulated in these men. The Selectin E gene (which promotes inflammation and is elevated in breast cancer) was down-regulated. Another gene that suppresses tumor formation called SFRP was up-regulated, thereby reducing the risk of cancer. These genes are the target of many new drugs that are being developed. Clearly, changing lifestyle is less expensive, and the only side-effects are good ones. Dr. Craig Venter's pioneering research is showing that one way to change your genes is to synthesize new ones. Another may be to change your lifestyle.
The figure here provides a graphic representation of some of these changes in gene expression. Each line represents one of 31 genes that regulate "intracellular protein traffic" which affects how cells communicate with each other. The green color represents genes that are downregulated ("turned off") and the red color represents genes that are upregulated ("turned on"). As you can see, there are a lot more green (turned off) genes on the right side of the figure than on the left side.
For the past 31 years, I have directed a series of research studies showing that changes in lifestyle can make a powerful difference in our health and well-being, and how quickly these changes may occur. We showed that comprehensive lifestyle changes may stop or reverse the progression of coronary heart disease, diabetes, hypertension, obesity, hypercholesterolemia, and other chronic conditions.
Two years ago, along with Dr. Carroll (Chair of Urology, UCSF) and others who also collaborated on the new gene expression study, we published the first randomized controlled trial showing that these lifestyle changes may slow, stop, or even reverse the progression of prostate cancer, which may affect breast cancer as well. When we published our earlier studies, we didn't understand many of the mechanisms by which these changes may have occurred. Now, our new study is beginning to provide some insight into what some of these genetic mechanisms may be.
Because we looked at normal tissue within the prostate (rather than the prostate tumor cells), it is likely that our findings may be generalized beyond men with prostate cancer. Also, people who are otherwise healthy may not need to make such intensive changes and have a spectrum of choices. We are still trying to understand the full significance of these findings--we've raised more questions than we've answered, and we need larger, longer-term studies--but it's already clear that you may be able to alter, at least to some degree, how your genes are expressed simply by changing your diet and lifestyle.
I find this to be a profoundly hopeful message. Often, I hear people say, "Oh, I've got bad genes, there's nothing I can do about it"--displaying what I call genetic nihilism. Our findings (the first to show the effect of lifestyle changes on any kind of cancer genes) can be an antidote to genetic nihilism and, I hope, motivate people to begin making their own changes. In most cases, our genes are only a predisposition; they are not written in stone. And if we have a strong family history for diseases such as prostate cancer, breast cancer, or heart disease-- "bad genes"-- then we may need to make bigger changes in lifestyle in order to help prevent or even reverse chronic diseases. In the centuries-old debate about nature vs. nurture, we are learning that nurture affects nature as much as nature affects nurture. It's not all in our genes.
---From NewsWeek 2008.06
Dean Ornish M.D.Newsweek Web ExclusiveUpdated: 6:32 PM ET Jun 17, 2008
Here's some very good news: your genes are not your destiny. Earlier this week, my colleagues and I published the first study showing that improved nutrition, stress management techniques, walking, and psychosocial support actually changed the expression of over 500 genes in men with early-stage prostate cancer. This study was conducted at the non-profit Preventive Medicine Research Institute and the University of California, San Francisco in collaboration with Dr. Peter Carroll, Dr. Mark Magbanua, Dr. Chris Haqq, and others.
In this study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, we studied gene expression in biopsies from 30 men who were diagnosed with low-risk prostate cancer. These men had decided not to undergo conventional treatments such as surgery, radiation, or chemotherapy for reasons unrelated to the study. They had early, small-volume prostate cancer with stable prostate specific antigen (PSA) levels and Gleason scores of six or less, meaning that their tumors were not aggressive.
We biopsied their prostates at the beginning of the study and again three months later, after making comprehensive lifestyle changes. Since these patients did not have conventional treatments during this time, it enabled us to assess the effects of the lifestyle changes on gene expression without confounding interventions such as surgery, radiation, or chemotherapy.
The changes included a plant-based diet (predominant fruits, vegetables, legumes, soy products, and whole grains low in refined carbohydrates), moderate exercise (walking 30 minutes per day), stress management techniques (yoga-based stretching, breathing techniques, meditation, and guided imagery for one hour per day), and participating in a weekly one-hour support group. The diet was supplemented with soy, fish oil (three grams/day), vitamin E (100 units/day), selenium (200 mg/day), and vitamin C (2 grams/day). These lifestyle changes are described more fully in my book, The Spectrum.
After three months, we repeated the biopsy and looked at changes in normal tissue within the prostate. We found that many disease-promoting genes (including those associated with cancer, heart disease, and inflammation) were down-regulated or "turned off," whereas protective, disease-preventing genes were up-regulated or "turned on." For example, a set of cancer-promoting oncogenes called RAS was down-regulated in these men. The Selectin E gene (which promotes inflammation and is elevated in breast cancer) was down-regulated. Another gene that suppresses tumor formation called SFRP was up-regulated, thereby reducing the risk of cancer. These genes are the target of many new drugs that are being developed. Clearly, changing lifestyle is less expensive, and the only side-effects are good ones. Dr. Craig Venter's pioneering research is showing that one way to change your genes is to synthesize new ones. Another may be to change your lifestyle.
The figure here provides a graphic representation of some of these changes in gene expression. Each line represents one of 31 genes that regulate "intracellular protein traffic" which affects how cells communicate with each other. The green color represents genes that are downregulated ("turned off") and the red color represents genes that are upregulated ("turned on"). As you can see, there are a lot more green (turned off) genes on the right side of the figure than on the left side.
For the past 31 years, I have directed a series of research studies showing that changes in lifestyle can make a powerful difference in our health and well-being, and how quickly these changes may occur. We showed that comprehensive lifestyle changes may stop or reverse the progression of coronary heart disease, diabetes, hypertension, obesity, hypercholesterolemia, and other chronic conditions.
Two years ago, along with Dr. Carroll (Chair of Urology, UCSF) and others who also collaborated on the new gene expression study, we published the first randomized controlled trial showing that these lifestyle changes may slow, stop, or even reverse the progression of prostate cancer, which may affect breast cancer as well. When we published our earlier studies, we didn't understand many of the mechanisms by which these changes may have occurred. Now, our new study is beginning to provide some insight into what some of these genetic mechanisms may be.
Because we looked at normal tissue within the prostate (rather than the prostate tumor cells), it is likely that our findings may be generalized beyond men with prostate cancer. Also, people who are otherwise healthy may not need to make such intensive changes and have a spectrum of choices. We are still trying to understand the full significance of these findings--we've raised more questions than we've answered, and we need larger, longer-term studies--but it's already clear that you may be able to alter, at least to some degree, how your genes are expressed simply by changing your diet and lifestyle.
I find this to be a profoundly hopeful message. Often, I hear people say, "Oh, I've got bad genes, there's nothing I can do about it"--displaying what I call genetic nihilism. Our findings (the first to show the effect of lifestyle changes on any kind of cancer genes) can be an antidote to genetic nihilism and, I hope, motivate people to begin making their own changes. In most cases, our genes are only a predisposition; they are not written in stone. And if we have a strong family history for diseases such as prostate cancer, breast cancer, or heart disease-- "bad genes"-- then we may need to make bigger changes in lifestyle in order to help prevent or even reverse chronic diseases. In the centuries-old debate about nature vs. nurture, we are learning that nurture affects nature as much as nature affects nurture. It's not all in our genes.
---From NewsWeek 2008.06
2008年5月2日星期五
Uncontrollable Nationalism???
There are two jokes:
- A German guy has shown off his new jeans before a Chinese and said, "See hum, buddy, the people in your country have never (worn)saw such stuffs? ", so the Chinese is angry......
- An American dude came for the first time to Germany and talked with a local "I never expected, that there is even highway in Germany!"
The European "credible" medium nearly ruined their business with their sticky ideologies, in any case, they should not blamed due to their perfect ignorance about Asian culture, because they've been mollycoddled by their generous welfares system for quite a long time. Inside it, everybody could think pretty objective, outside it, no way.
2008年4月20日星期日
Demonstration in Berlin against German Media distortion and for Olympic games 2008 (04.19.2008)
Demonstration in Berlin against German Media distortion and for Olympic games 2008
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